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Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds

Author

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  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract
Contributing to the contentious debate on the relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth, I examine the role of theory-driven (non-)sustainable debt-ratios in combination with debt-ratio thresholds on economic growth. Based on both dynamic and non-dynamic panel data analyses in the euro area (EA) 12 countries over the period 1970-2013, I find that non-sustainable debt-ratios above and below the 60% threshold, have a detrimental effect on short-run economic growth, while sustainable debt-ratios below the 90% threshold exert a positive influence on short-run economic growth. In the long-run, both non-sustainable and sustainable debt-ratios above the 90% threshold, as well as non-sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% compromise economic growth. Robustness analysis supports these findings, and provides additional evidence of a positive effect of sustainable debt-ratios below the 60% threshold, as predicated by the Maastricht Treaty criterion, on (short- and long-run) economic growth. Overall, these results suggest that debt sustainability in addition to debt non-linearities should be considered simultaneously in the debt-growth nexus. In addition, the results indicate the importance of a timely reaction of fiscal policy in countries with non-sustainable debts, as implied by fiscal rules, in an attempt to ensure fiscal sustainability and, ultimately, promote long-run economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2014. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp187, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp187
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    Cited by:

    1. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    2. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Javier Sosvilla-Rivero, 2016. "Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1602, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    4. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    5. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    6. Felix Fofana N¡¯Zue, 2020. "Is External Debt Hampering Growth in the ECOWAS Region?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-54, April.
    7. Ahlborn, Markus & Schweickert, Rainer, 2018. "Public Debt and Economic Growth – Economic Systems Matter," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403.
    8. Hussein Salameh & Ahmed Alodadi & Khaled Alzubi, 2020. "The Effect of Sovereign Debt on Economic Growth: The Case of Oil-Rich Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 262-267.
    9. Irina BILAN, 2015. "Economic Consequences Of Public Debt. The Case Of Central And Eastern European Countries," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 2, pages 36-51.
    10. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence euro area," IREA Working Papers 201715, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2017.
    11. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Short-run and long-run effects of public debt on economic performance: Evidence from EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201522, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Alejandro D. Jacobo & Ileana R. Jalile, 2017. "The Impact of Government Debt on Economic Growth: An Overview for Latin America," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 28/2017, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; growth; sustainability; threshold; government budget constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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