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Moving Into the Slow Lane

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Alexandra Bykova

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Rumen Dobrinsky

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Doris Hanzl-Weiss

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Peter Havlik
  • Mario Holzner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Gabor Hunya

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sebastian Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sandor Richter

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Hermine Vidovic

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Goran Vukšić
Abstract
Growth in much of CESEE will remain healthy by post-crisis standards, but has passed its peak. We expect most economies to slow from here, reflecting weaker external demand and domestic capacity constraints. Global trade tensions, structural weakness in the eurozone and Brexit all pose downside risks to our forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Alexandra Bykova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Peter Havlik & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda Mara & Olga Pindyuk & Leon Podkamin, 2019. "Moving Into the Slow Lane," wiiw Forecast Reports Spring2019, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2019
    as

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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/moving-into-the-slow-lane-dlp-4824.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CESEE; economic forecast; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; new EU Member States; CIS; Russia; Ukraine; Romania; Czech Republic; Hungary; Turkey; Serbia; convergence; business cycle; overheating; external risks; trade war; EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; employment; wage growth; unit labour costs; migration; inflation; savings rate; financial crisis; financial markets; direct lending; leverage; central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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