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Does Having the Right Visitor Mix Do the Job? Applying an Econometric Shift-share Model to Regional Tourism Developments

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  • Matthias Firgo
  • Oliver Fritz
Abstract
This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the tourist appeal of individual regions rather than a result of more or less favourable structures of visitors. Second, none of several mega-events during the period observed seem to have left prolonged positive effects on the tourism performance of the host regions. And third, performance appears uncorrelated with tourism intensity of a region. Thus, from a policy and destination management perspective, tourism authorities and local suppliers should mainly focus on upgrading the permanent destination attractiveness rather than investing too much effort into landing mega-events or targeting the visitor mix towards promising source markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2016. "Does Having the Right Visitor Mix Do the Job? Applying an Econometric Shift-share Model to Regional Tourism Developments," WIFO Working Papers 517, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2016:i:517
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    Cited by:

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    2. Serrano-Amado, Ana Milena & Montoya-Restrepo, Luz Alexandra & Amado-Cely, Nidia Paola, 2021. "La competitividad turística. Una aproximación desde el Departamento de Boyacá, Colombia," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 22(1), pages 226-253, January.
    3. Yoo Ri Kim & Anyu Liu & Allan M Williams, 2022. "Competitiveness in the visitor economy: A systematic literature review," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 817-842, May.
    4. ShiNa Li & Yixin Liu & Shanshan Dai & Mengxin Chen, 2022. "A review of tourism and hospitality studies on behavioural economics," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 843-859, May.
    5. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 7/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(7), July.
    6. Martin Falk & Robert Steiger, 2020. "Size facilitates profitable ski lift operations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1197-1211, November.
    7. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2017. "Measuring the impact of the European Capital of Culture programme on overnight stays: evidence for the last two decades," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(12), pages 2175-2191, December.
    8. Michael Klien & Hans Pitlik & Matthias Firgo & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger, 2020. "Ein Modell für einen strukturierten vertikalen Finanzausgleich in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65854.
    9. Claudia V. Montanía & Miguel A. Márquez & Teresa Fernández‐Núñez & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2024. "Toward a more comprehensive shift‐share analysis: An illustration using regional data," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), March.
    10. Firgo, Matthias, 2021. "The causal economic effects of Olympic Games on host regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2023. "Regionalwirtschaftliche und touristische Effekte von Sportgroßveranstaltungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(7), pages 481-490, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austria; regional performance; service exports; shift-share regression analysis; tourism developments; visitor portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M30 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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