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How Does Trade Respond to Anticipated Tariff Changes ? Evidence from NAFTA

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  • Khan,Shafaat Yar
  • Khederlarian,Armen
Abstract
Firms anticipate upcoming tariff changes by shifting their purchases to periods with lower costs. This paper shows that such anticipatory dynamics overstate the trade elasticity. Standard identification of the trade response to trade cost changes uses tariff variation from free trade agreements and assumes that trade flows equal their consumption. However, free trade agreements eliminate tariffs gradually through announced phaseouts. This allows firms to delay their purchases until tariff cuts are effective, while consuming their inventories. Indeed, during the North American Free Trade Agreement’s staged tariff reductions, imports experienced sizable anticipatory slumps followed by libseralization bumps. To study the behavior of consumed imports, a measure is constructed that uses inventory-to-sales ratios to smooth the trade flows. Its application to the data yields that the annual trade-flow elasticity is 56 percent larger than the trade-consumption response and that the ratio of the long- to short-run elasticity increases from 2.3 with trade flows to 3.4 with consumed imports. The measure is validated through Monte Carlo simulations of an (s,S) ordering model that reproduces the observed trade pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan,Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian,Armen, 2021. "How Does Trade Respond to Anticipated Tariff Changes ? Evidence from NAFTA," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9646, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9646
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Martha Elena Delgado & Juan Herreño & Marc Hofstetter & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations," Working Papers 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Asier Minondo, 2024. "How exporters neutralised an increase in tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 1274-1296, March.
    4. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    5. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen & Mix, Carter & Ruhl, Kim J., 2023. "The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. French, Scott & Zylkin, Tom, 2024. "The effects of free trade agreements on product-level trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    9. Francois de Soyres & Erik Frohm & Emily Highkin & Carter Mix, 2021. "Forward Looking Exporters," FEDS Notes 2021-10-06-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade and Trade Rules; Trade and Services; Rules of Origin; Trade and Multilateral Issues; Trade Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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