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Risky business : political instability and greenfield foreign direct investment in the Arab world

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  • Burger, Martijn
  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Rijkers, Bob
Abstract
Which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability? Analysis of quarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in the Middle East and North Africa from 2003 to 2012 shows that adverse political shocks are associated with significantly reduced investment inflows in the non-resource tradable sectors. By contrast, investments in natural resource sectors and non-tradable activities appear insensitive to such shocks. Consistent with these patterns, the significant reduction in investment inflows in Arab Spring affected economies was starkest in the non-resource manufacturing sector. Political instability is thus associated with increased reliance on non-tradables and aggravated resource dependence. Conversely, how intensified political instability affects aggregate foreign direct investment is critically contingent on the initial sector composition of these flows.

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  • Burger, Martijn & Ianchovichina, Elena & Rijkers, Bob, 2013. "Risky business : political instability and greenfield foreign direct investment in the Arab world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6716, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6716
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    Cited by:

    1. Burger, Martijn J. & Ianchovichina, Elena I., 2014. "Surges and stops in FDI flows to developing countries : does the mode of entry make a difference ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6771, The World Bank.
    2. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2019. "The democracy and economic growth nexus: Do FDI and government spending matter? Evidence from the Arab world," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-29.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    4. Kareem, Olayinka Idowu, 2014. "Standards and Food Exports in a South - North Trade: Evidence from the ‘Hurdles to Pass’ for High-Value Products," Conference papers 332530, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Elena Ianchovichina, 2014. "On Shared Prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 20546, The World Bank Group.
    6. Yazdani , Mahdi & Daryani , Elmira, 2021. "Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 213-236, June.
    7. Triki, Dora & Mayrhofer, Ulrike, 2016. "Do initial characteristics influence IJV longevity? Evidence from the Mediterranean region," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 795-805.
    8. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Wasseem Mina, 2014. "But Most of All We Love Each Other: Does Social Cohesion Pay off? Evidence from FDI Flows to Middle Income Countries," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1424, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    10. Caroline Witte & Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2014. "Political Violence and Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in Natural Resources," Working Papers 2014/23, Maastricht School of Management.
    11. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.

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