[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states

Author

Listed:
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Blankespoor, Brian
  • Dinar, Shlomi
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Abstract
This paper assesses the impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate change is anticipated to change the variability of water supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies have focused mainlyon water scarcity, measured in terms of mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water variability measure used here captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability over periods of 30 and 100 years. The analysis used economic and international relations data to identify incentives for international cooperation in addressing water supply variability. The authors find that small-to-moderate increases in variability create an impetus for cooperation, although large increases in variability would reduce incentives for treaty cooperation. Stronger diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation, while uneven economic power inhibits cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation across the basin riparians. The findings have policy implications in the context of preparedness for impacts of climate change on the water sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinar, Ariel & Blankespoor, Brian & Dinar, Shlomi & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2010. "The impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5307, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/06/22/000158349_20100622080636/Rendered/PDF/WPS5307.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ambec, Stefan & Ehlers, Lars, 2008. "Sharing a river among satiable agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 35-50, September.
    2. Ambec, Stefan & Sprumont, Yves, 2002. "Sharing a River," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 453-462, December.
    3. Janmaat, Johannus & Ruijs, Arjan, 2007. "Sharing the load? Floods, droughts, and managing international rivers," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 573-592, August.
    4. D. Kilgour & Ariel Dinar, 2001. "Flexible Water Sharing within an International River Basin," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 43-60, January.
    5. Shlomi Dinar, 2009. "Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-135, February.
    6. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Joel B. Smith & Robert Mendelsohn (ed.), 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4129.
    8. Michiel S. de Vries, 1990. "Interdependence, Cooperation and Conflict: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 27(4), pages 429-444, November.
    9. Dinar, Shlomi & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "Scarperation : an empirical inquiry into the role of scarcity in fostering cooperation between international river riparians," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4294, The World Bank.
    10. Norman L. Miller & Kathy E. Bashford & Eric Strem, 2006. "Changes in Runoff," Chapters, in: Joel B. Smith & Robert Mendelsohn (ed.), The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2008. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 249-266, October.
    12. Eric Neumayer, 2002. "Does Trade Openness Promote Multilateral Environmental Cooperation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 815-832, June.
    13. Jaroslav Tir & John T. Ackerman, 2009. "Politics of Formalized River Cooperation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(5), pages 623-640, September.
    14. Murgai, Rinku & Winters, Paul & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Janvry, Alain de, 2002. "Localized and incomplete mutual insurance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 245-274, April.
    15. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Bernauer & Tobias Bohmelt, 2014. "Basins at Risk: Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Cooperation," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 14(4), pages 116-138, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinar, Ariel & Blankespoor, Brian & Dinar, Shlomi & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2010. "Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2568-2581, October.
    2. Abraham, Anand & Ramachandran, Parthasarathy, 2021. "The welfare implications of transboundary storage and dam ownership on river water trade," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 18-27.
    3. Ambec, Stefan & Dinar, Ariel, 2010. "Hot Stuff: Would Climate Change Alter Transboundary Water Sharing Treaties?," LERNA Working Papers 10.15.321, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    4. Ambec, Stefan & Dinar, Ariel & McKinney, Daene, 2013. "Water sharing agreements sustainable to reduced flows," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 639-655.
    5. Gudmundsson, Jens & Hougaard, Jens Leth & Ko, Chiu Yu, 2019. "Decentralized mechanisms for river sharing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 67-81.
    6. Wang, Yuntong, 2011. "Trading water along a river," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 124-130, March.
    7. Cabo, Francisco & Erdlenbruch, Katrin & Tidball, Mabel, 2014. "Dynamic management of water transfer between two interconnected river basins," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 17-38.
    8. Ambec, Stefan & Ehlers, Lars, 2008. "Sharing a river among satiable agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 35-50, September.
    9. Ansink, Erik & Houba, Harold, 2016. "Sustainable agreements on stochastic river flow," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-117.
    10. Dinar, Shlomi & Katz, David & De Stefano, Lucia & Blankespoor, Brian, 2014. "Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6916, The World Bank.
    11. Cabo, Francisco & Tidball, Mabel, 2017. "Promotion of cooperation when benefits come in the future: A water transfer case," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 56-71.
    12. van den Brink, René & van der Laan, Gerard & Moes, Nigel, 2012. "Fair agreements for sharing international rivers with multiple springs and externalities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 388-403.
    13. Kong, Wen & Knapp, Keith C., 2014. "Economic and Political Equilibrium for a Renewable Natural Resource with International Trade," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170591, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Juarez, Ruben & Ko, Chiu Yu & Xue, Jingyi, 2018. "Sharing sequential values in a network," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 734-779.
    15. Arun S. Malik & Stephen C. Smith, 2012. "Adaptation To Climate Change In Low-Income Countries: Lessons From Current Research And Needs From Future Research," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-22.
    16. Devin Michelle Bunten & Matthew E. Kahn, 2014. "The Impact of Emerging Climate Risks on Urban Real Estate Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Blankespoor, Brian & Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Wheeler, David, 2010. "Adaptation to climate extremes in developing countries : the role of education," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5342, The World Bank.
    18. Johar, Meliyanni & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Siminski, Peter & Stavrunova, Olena, 2022. "The economic impacts of direct natural disaster exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 26-39.
    19. Stefan Ambec & Lars Ehlers, 2016. "Regulation via the Polluter‐pays Principle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 884-906, June.
    20. Osório, António, 2017. "Self-interest and equity concerns: A behavioural allocation rule for operational problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(1), pages 205-213.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.