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The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach

Author

Listed:
  • Maddison, David
  • Manley, Marita
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Abstract
This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers'own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff.Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Maddison, David & Manley, Marita & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4306, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4306
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo, 2022. "Climate Change, Cotton Prices and Production in Cameroon," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 22-50, February.
    2. Isaure Delaporte & Mathilde Maurel, 2018. "Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-62, January.
    3. Jawid, Asadullah, 2020. "A Ricardian analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from the farms in the central highlands of Afghanistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2023. "Drought, Livestock Holding, and Milk Production: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis," EfD Discussion Paper 23-12, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    5. John Horowitz, 2009. "The Income–Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 475-493, December.
    6. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56321, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Mora-Rivera, José Jorge, 2013. "efectos del cambio climático sobre la renta de la tierra de guatemala: un enfoque ricardiano," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(38), pages 7-38, segundo t.
    8. Azzarri, Carlo & Signorelli, Sara, 2020. "Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Basurto, Saul, 2016. "A Mexican Ricardian analysis: land rental prices or net revenues?," 90th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2016, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 236362, Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. Ayala Wineman & Thomas S Jayne, 2018. "Land Prices Heading Skyward? An Analysis of Farmland Values across Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 187-214.
    11. Christian Hott & Judith Regner, 2023. "Weather extremes, agriculture and the value of weather index insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(2), pages 230-259, September.
    12. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
    13. Allen, Summer L. & Badiane, Ousmane & Ulimwengu, John M., 2012. "Government expenditures, social outcomes, and marginal productivity of agricultural inputs: a case study for Tanzania," IFPRI discussion papers 1172, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki, 2017. "Climate Change: Perceptions, Reality and Agricultural Practice: Evidence from Nepal," Working Papers id:11903, eSocialSciences.
    15. Chau Trinh Nguyen & Frank Scrimgeour, 2022. "Measuring the impact of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam: A panel Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 37-51, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics&Policies; Climate Change; Common Property Resource Development; Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems; Global Environment Facility;
    All these keywords.

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