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Political violence and economic growth

Author

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  • Bodea, Cristina
  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the economic growth impact of organized political violence. First, the authors articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth impact of political violence in a popular model of growth under uncertainty. The authors show that, under plausible assumptions regarding attitudes toward risk, the overall effects of organized political violence are likely to be much higher than its direct capital destruction impact. Second, using a quantitative model of violence that distinguishes between three levels of political violence (riots, coups, and civil war), the authors use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence and its three manifestations to identify their growth effects in an encompassing growth model. Panel regressions suggest that organized political violence, especially civil war, significantly lowers long-term economic growth. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, the authors also find ethnic fractionalization to have a negative and direct effect on growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by the institutions specific to a non-factional partial democracy. Third, the results show that Sub-Saharan Africa has been disproportionately impacted by civil war, which explains a substantial share of its economic decline, including the widening income gap relative to East Asia. Civil wars have also been costly for Sub-Saharan Africa. For the case of Sudan, a typical large African country experiencing a long-duration conflict, the cost of war amounts to $46 billion (in 2000 fixed prices), whichis roughly double the country's current stock of external debt. Fourth, the authors suggest that to break free from its conflict-underdevelopment trap, Africa needs to better manage its ethnic diversity. The way to do this would be to develop inclusive, non-factional democracy. A democratic but factional polity would not work, and would be only marginally better than an authoritarian regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Alexander Cotte Poveda, 2012. "Estimating Effectiveness of the Control of Violence and Socioeconomic Development in Colombia: An Application of Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis and Data Panel Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(3), pages 343-366, February.
    3. Alexander Cotte Poveda, 2011. "Estimando la efectividad en el control de la violencia y el desarrollo socio-económico en Colombia," Serie de Documentos en Economía y Violencia 8079, Centro de Investigaciones en Violencia, Instituciones y Desarrollo Económico (VIDE).
    4. Eleonora Nillesen & Philip Verwimp, 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames?: Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Nillesen, Eleonora & Verwim, Philip, 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Stermšek, Marko, 2014. "The Economics of Secession ? Analysing the economic impact of the collapse of the former Yugoslavia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Nonso Obikili, 2015. "An Examination of Subnational Growth in Nigeria: 1999-2012," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 335-356, September.
    8. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2010. "Conflicts and returns to stability in developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5428, The World Bank.
    9. Alexander Cotte Poveda, 2011. "Estimating Effectiveness of the Control of Violence and Socioeconomic Development in Colombia: An Application of DEA and Data Panel Approach," Serie de Documentos en Economía y Violencia 8356, Centro de Investigaciones en Violencia, Instituciones y Desarrollo Económico (VIDE).
    10. Rabia Haroon & Zainab Jehan, 2022. "Measuring the impact of violence on macroeconomic instability: evidence from developing countries," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(1), pages 3-30, January.

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    Keywords

    Post Conflict Reconstruction; Population Policies; Hazard Risk Management; Post Conflict Reintegration; Social Conflict and Violence;
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