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Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries

Author

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  • Cuddington, John T.
Abstract
The author surveys the recent literature on the sustainability of fiscal deficits, most of which focuses on the United States and other industrial countries, to see how useful it might be in developing countries. The accounting approach to analysis focuses on steady states and assumes that a fiscal deficit (or surplus) that leads to unchanging debt/GDP ratios over time is sustainable. The data required to apply this approach are relatively modest. The present-value constraint (PVC) approach assumes that the sustainability of fiscal policy depends ultimately on what level of fiscal deficit is financeable, which depends in turn on the behavior of lenders. Recent empirical implementations of this approach concentrate on methods for testing whether maintaining current fiscal policy (as captured by historical time series on government spending, revenue, and debt) violates the present-value-constraint or, equivalently, the no-Ponzi-game (NPG) condition. The econometric methods used in this literature (such as tests for the prsence of unit roots and cointegration) require long-time series over a constant fiscal regime, requirements that may be unrealistic in many countries. Typically, analyzing the sustainability of deficits in developing countries involves issues that are not particularly important in industrialized countries. Developing countries rely far more on seignorage to finance deficits, although the degree of that reliance varies greatly among countries; the simultaneous presence of both domestic and foreign-currency borrowing is central in a growing number of developing countries; and concessional lending and grants may also be an important part of fiscal finance. The author generalizes the PVC approach to economies that use money-financing of deficits, economies for which concessional financing is available, and economies that incur both domestic and foreign debt. He proposes a possible compromise in approaches: rather than use time series techniques to describe constant fiscal regimes, one can specify fiscal rules into the foreseeable future based on country-specific information about fiscal targets (perhaps as stated in IMF stabilization programs). Then one can calculate the implied time path for domestic and foreign debt, given current debt levels as initial conditions. Using this hypothesized time path for debt, one can ask whether it satisfies the no-Ponzi-game condition. If it does, fiscal policy is -by this definition- sustainable. If the NPG condition is violated, fiscal policy is unsustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuddington, John T., 1997. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1784, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1784
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    4. Carrera, Claudia Martínez & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Debt Valuation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1762-1783.
    5. M. Arnone & A. F. Presbitero, 2007. "External Debt Sustainability and Domestic Debt in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 115(2), pages 187-213.
    6. Gerardo Licandro, 2000. "Las reglas de responsabilidad fiscal en el Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2000006, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    7. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    8. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    9. Genberg, Hans & Sulstarova, Astrit, 2008. "Macroeconomic volatility, debt dynamics, and sovereign interest rate spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 26-39, February.
    10. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    11. Anthony Birchwood & Rudolph Matthias, 2007. "Structural factors associated with primary fiscal balances in developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1235-1243.
    12. Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Hugo Rodriguez Gonzales, 2005. "Interacción de la política fiscal con la política monetaria en el MERCOSUR y países asociados," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 8(1), pages 49-97, December.
    13. Gunter, Bernhard & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Analyzing Debt Sustainability: An Application of SimSIP Debt for Paraguay," MPRA Paper 11076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Emmanouil Trachanas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Is the Greek budget deficit sustainable after all? Empirical evidence accounting for regime shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2387-2397, July.
    15. Olav Bjerkholt, 2004. "New approaches to debt relief and debt sustainability in LDCs," CDP Background Papers 005, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    16. Owolabi A. Usman & Dauda Gbolagade Adebisi, 2017. "A Structural Break Analysis of Fiscal Deficit Process in Nigeria," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 341-352, December.
    17. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2023. "The Debt-to-GDP Ratio as a Tool for Debt Management: Not Good for LICs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10273, CESifo.
    18. Marco Arnone & Luca Bandiera & Andrea Presbitero, 2005. "External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence," International Finance 0512007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Banks&Banking Reform; Strategic Debt Management; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Stabilization; Banks&Banking Reform; Strategic Debt Management; Environmental Economics&Policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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