[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2015-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political (In)Stability of Social Security Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Makarski

    (National Bank of Poland; Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Joanna Tyrowicz

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)

Abstract
In this paper we consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme (i.e. unprivatizing the pension system). We compare politically stable and politically unstable reforms and show that even if the funded system is overall welfare enhancing, the cohort distribution of benefits along the transition path turns unprivatizing social security politically favorable.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Political (In)Stability of Social Security Reform," Working Papers 2015-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2015-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/1788/
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mulligan Casey B & Sala-i-Martin Xavier, 2004. "Political and Economic Forces Sustaining Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-56, May.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February.
    4. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2007. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1677-1719.
    5. Juan C. Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal Policy In The Design Of Social Security Reforms," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 291-318, February.
    6. Grégory De Walque, 2005. "Voting on Pensions: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 181-209, April.
    7. Dhami, Sanjit & al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2010. "Redistributive policies with heterogeneous social preferences of voters," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 743-759, August.
    8. Phelan, Christopher, 2006. "Public trust and government betrayal," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 27-43, September.
    9. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January.
    10. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    11. Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2013. "Efficiency of the pension reform: the welfare effects of various fiscal closures," Working Papers 2013-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
    13. Roger D. Congleton & Alberto Batinti & Feler Bose & Youngshin Kim & Rinaldo Pietrantonio, 2013. "Public choice and the modern welfare state," Chapters, in: William F. Shughart II & Laura Razzolini & Michael Reksulak (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Public Choice, Second Edition, chapter 22, pages 362-381, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Unprivatizing the pension system: the case of Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 833-852, February.
    15. Pascal Belan & Philippe Michel & Pierre Pestieau, 1998. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 23(2), pages 119-125, December.
    16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Soares, Jorge, 1996. "Will social security survive the baby boom?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 89-121, December.
    17. Peter Jarrett, 2011. "Pension Reforms in Poland and Elsewhere: the View from Paris," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 425, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Ko Shakuno, 2014. "Public education, endogenous fertility and economic growth," TERG Discussion Papers 319, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    19. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2001. "Demographic Shock and Social Security: A Political Economy Perspective," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 417-431, August.
    20. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    21. Anita M. Schwarz & Omar S. Arias & Asta Zviniene & Heinz P. Rudolph & Sebastian Eckardt & Johannes Koettl & Herwig Immervoll & Miglena Abels, 2014. "The Inverting Pyramid : Pension Systems Facing Demographic Challenges in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17049.
    22. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beetsma, Roel & Komada, Oliwia & Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2021. "The political (in)stability of funded social security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Casamatta, G. & Batté, L., 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 381-444, Elsevier.
    3. Georges Casamatta & L. Batté, 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Post-Print hal-02520521, HAL.
    4. Casamatta, Georges & Brasil Gondim, João Luis, 2008. "Voting on Parametric Reforms of the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," CEPR Discussion Papers 6993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Casamatta, Georges & Gondim, Joao Luis, 2009. "Reforming the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: Who Votes for it ? When?," TSE Working Papers 09-104, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2011. "Old-age Social Security vs. Forward Intergenerational Public Goods Provision," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-26-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Apr 2012.
    7. Elizabeth Caucutt & Thomas Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2013. "The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Hollanders, D.A. & Koster, F., 2012. "The Graying of the Median Voter," Discussion Paper 2012-061, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Karolina Goraus & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "Does social security reform reduce gains from increasing the retirement age?," Working Papers 2014-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    11. Bielecki Marcin & Tyrowicz Joanna & Makarski Krzysztof, 2018. "Illusory Gains from Privatizing Social Security when Reform is Politically Unstable," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-12, May.
    12. Bernard M.S. van Praag & Pedro Cardoso, 2003. "The Mix Between Pay-as-you-go and Funded Pensions and What Demography Has to Do with it," CESifo Working Paper Series 865, CESifo.
    13. Marko Koethenbuerger & Panu Poutvaara & Paola Profeta, 2008. "Why are more redistributive social security systems smaller? A median voter approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-292, April.
    14. Amol Amol & Monisankar Bishnu & Tridip Ray, 2023. "Pension, possible phaseout, and endogenous fertility in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(2), pages 376-406, April.
    15. repec:aia:aiaswp:wp98 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hollanders, D.A. & Koster, F., 2012. "The Graying of the Median Voter," Other publications TiSEM e94711e6-6bd1-4fdb-9c78-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Joanna Tyrowicz & Krzysztof Makarski & Marcin Bielecki, 2016. "Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, December.
    18. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2016. "Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 125-143.
    19. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2014. "Public debt and social security: Level of formality matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 490-507.
    20. Oliwia Komada & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2017. "Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension system," GRAPE Working Papers 11, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    21. Hollanders, D.A., 2010. "The Political Economy of Intergenerational Risk Sharing," Other publications TiSEM 3c50ad85-2971-481e-9aa3-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system reform; time inconsistency; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2015-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.