[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201917.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crop and Conflict: exploring the impact of Inequalityin Agricultural Production on Conflict Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Vesco

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; PRIO, Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Matija Kovacic

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

  • Malcolm Mistry

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

Abstract
Recent attempts to find a robust empirical correlation between climate variability, crop production and civil conflict risk have been quite inconclusive. In this paper, we argue that the ambiguity in empirical findings may be partly due to a general tendency to treat agricultural production in absolute terms, while neglecting the importance of the relative deprivation triggered by unequal distribution in crop yields across locations and between groups. To test this hypothesis, we rely on high-resolution global gridded data on the local yield of four main crops for the period 1981-2017, and calculate the level of inequality in crop production by means of a Gini index using the grid-cell information on yearly crop yields both at the country level and between identity based groups (regional and ethnic). In addition, for each level of spatial disaggregation, we compute the Gini coefficient using information on crop production from rural grid-cells only. Our results reveal a strong and robust association between crop inequality and the probability of conflict outbreak. This effect is particularly pronounced in the case of inequality among rural areas. Climatic variability, on the other hand, is shown not to increase significantly the destabilizing effect of crop inequality. We also find that akin ethnic competition and discrimination along ethnic lines represent good predictors of conflict outbreak, especially in the case of ethnic conflicts, and when the between-group inequality in crop production is calculated along ethnic boundaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Vesco & Matija Kovacic & Malcolm Mistry, 2019. "Crop and Conflict: exploring the impact of Inequalityin Agricultural Production on Conflict Risk," Working Papers 2019: 17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2019:17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unive.it/web/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/DEC/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2019/WP_DSE_vesco_kovacic_mistry_17_19.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Inequality; Climate Change; Conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2019:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sassano Sonia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.