[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vcu/wpaper/2301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The real effects of financial disruptions in a monetary economy

Author

Listed:
  • Miroslav Gabrovski

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii)

  • Athanasios Geromichalos

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis)

  • Lucas Herrenbrueck

    (Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University)

  • Ioannis Kospentaris

    (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

  • Sukjoon Lee

    (Department of Economics, New York University Shanghai)

Abstract
A large literature in macroeconomics reaches the conclusion that disruptions in financial markets have large negative effects on output and (un)employment. Although seemingly diverse, papers in this literature share a common characteristic: they employ frameworks where money is not explicitly modeled. This paper argues that the omission of money may hinder a model’s ability to evaluate the real effects of financial disruptions, since it deprives agents of a payment instrument that they could have used to cope with the resulting liquidity disruption. In a carefully calibrated New-Monetarist model with frictional labor, product, and financial markets we show that output and unemployment respond very modestly to shocks in the ability of agents to trade in the financial market. Explicitly modeling money enables us to show that the size of the transmission mechanism between the financial market shock and the real economy is disciplined by the inflation level.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Gabrovski & Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Ioannis Kospentaris & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The real effects of financial disruptions in a monetary economy," Working Papers 2301, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:2301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tGNw3OdoXHg1q280xVXVGZ8eor6pIZX5/view
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    2. Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Liquidity premia in dynamic bargaining markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 66-96, May.
    3. Andolfatto, David & Berentsen, Aleksander & Waller, Christopher, 2014. "Optimal disclosure policy and undue diligence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 128-152.
    4. Monacelli, Tommaso & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Trigari, Antonella, 2023. "Financial markets and unemployment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 596-626.
    5. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    6. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    7. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gabrovski, Miroslav & Kospentaris, Ioannis, 2021. "Intermediation in over-the-counter markets with price transparency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    10. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 2013. "TFP during a credit crunch," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 1150-1178.
    11. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    12. Zachary Bethune & Michael Choi & Randall Wright, 2020. "Frictional Goods Markets: Theory and Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 691-720.
    13. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    14. Kalai, Ehud, 1977. "Proportional Solutions to Bargaining Situations: Interpersonal Utility Comparisons," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(7), pages 1623-1630, October.
    15. Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2019. "On the mechanics of New-Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 53-69.
    16. Darrell Duffie, 2012. "Over-The-Counter Markets," Introductory Chapters, in: Dark Markets: Asset Pricing and Information Transmission in Over-the-Counter Markets, Princeton University Press.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8622 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ricardo Lagos, 2011. "Asset Prices, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy in an Exchange Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 521-552, October.
    19. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "Unemployment and vacancy fluctuations in the matching model: inspecting the mechanism," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Sum), pages 19-50.
    20. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2014. "Liquidity provision, interest rates, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-101.
    21. Venky Venkateswaran & Randall Wright, 2014. "Pledgability and Liquidity: A New Monetarist Model of Financial and Macroeconomic Activity," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 227-270.
    22. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2014. "Credit, Vacancies and Unemployment Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, April.
    23. Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2019. "Interest Rates, Moneyness, and the Fisher Equation," Discussion Papers dp19-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    24. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2009. "Liquidity in Asset Markets With Search Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 403-426, March.
    25. Etienne Wasmer & Philippe Weil, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Labor and Credit Market Imperfections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 944-963, September.
    26. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    27. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    28. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    29. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2022. "The Limits of ONETARY ECONOMICS: On Money as a Constraint on Market Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1177-1204, May.
    30. Philippe Weil & Etienne Wasmer, 2004. "The macroeconomics of credit and labor market imperfections," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13436, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    31. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Etienne Wasmer, 2013. "The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-221, January.
    32. Kuk Mo Jung & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2020. "A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices," Working Papers 2001, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    33. Tai‐Wei Hu & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Mechanism Design Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 39-76, June.
    34. Nosal, Ed & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2013. "Pairwise trade, asset prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-17.
    35. Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2007. "Leaning Against the Wind," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1329-1354.
    36. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    37. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    38. Chang, Briana & Zhang, Shengxing, 2015. "Endogenous market making and network formation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86275, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. Athanasios Geromichalos & Juan M Licari & Jose Suarez-Lledo, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 761-779, October.
    40. Peter A. Diamond, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(2), pages 217-227.
    41. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    42. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2017. "Liquidity: A New Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(2), pages 371-440, June.
    43. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    44. Madison, Florian, 2019. "Frictional asset reallocation under adverse selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 115-130.
    45. Berentsen, Aleksander & Camera, Gabriele & Waller, Christopher, 2007. "Money, credit and banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 171-195, July.
    46. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    47. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2017. "The Fundamental Surplus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2630-2665, September.
    48. Mattesini, Fabrizio & Nosal, Ed, 2016. "Liquidity and asset prices in a monetary model with OTC asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 187-217.
    49. Aleksander Berentsen & Samuel Huber & Alessandro Marchesiani, 2014. "Degreasing The Wheels Of Finance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 735-763, August.
    50. Chiu, Jonathan & Molico, Miguel, 2010. "Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 428-438, May.
    51. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Jacob Bochner & Min Wei & Jie Yang, 2020. "What Drove Recent Trends in Corporate Bonds and Loans Usage?," FEDS Notes 2020-10-23-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    53. Friewald, Nils & Jankowitsch, Rainer & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2012. "Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-36.
    54. Chang, Briana & Zhang, Shengxing, 2015. "Endogenous market making and network formation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65105, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "Asset Safety versus Asset Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(5), pages 1172-1212.
    56. Johannes Goensch & Andreas Gulyas & Ioannis Kospentaris, 2021. "Unemployment Insurance Reforms in a Search Model With Endogenous Labor Force Participation," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_264, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    57. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    58. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    59. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8622 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1993. "A Search-Theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 63-77, March.
    61. Etienne Wasmer & Philippe Weil, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Credit and Labor Markets Imperfections," SciencePo Working papers hal-01020132, HAL.
    62. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 35-79, February.
    63. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
    64. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert, 2015. "Aggregate Unemployment and Household Unsecured Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, January.
    65. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
    66. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2011. "Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 628-650, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Mohammed Ait Lahcen & Garth Baughman & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "Racial Unemployment Gaps and the Disparate Impact of the Inflation Tax," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 073, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    2. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    3. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "Monetary policy and efficiency in over-the-counter financial trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1699-1754, November.
    4. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods, labor, and credit market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-113.
    5. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2014. "Liquidity provision, interest rates, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-101.
    7. Lukas Altermatt & Kohei Iwasaki & Randall Wright, 2023. "General Equilibrium with Multiple Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 267-291, December.
    8. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    9. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert, 2015. "Aggregate Unemployment and Household Unsecured Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, January.
    10. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
    11. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Jung, Kuk Mo, 2024. "Heterogeneous asset valuation in OTC markets and optimal inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Mohammed Ait Lahcen & Garth Baughman & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "Racial Unemployment Gaps and the Disparate Impact of the Inflation Tax," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 073, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright, 2010. "New monetarist economics: methods," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 265-302.
    14. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2019. "The role of trading frictions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Tsasa, Jean-Paul K., 2022. "Labor market volatility in a fully specified RBC search model: An analytical investigation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5por5bt92h8l0bc7ls4elmcc0b is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2017. "On the optimal quantity of liquid bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-200.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5por5bt92h8l0bc7ls4elmcc0b is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Jung, Kuk Mo & Lee, Seungduck & Carlos, Dillon, 2021. "A model of endogenous direct and indirect asset liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Eleni Iliopulos & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2019. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations When Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2207-2237, December.
    21. Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2014. "Quantitative Easing and the Liquidity Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 70686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2016.
    22. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    search frictions; unemployment; corporate bonds; money; liquidity; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:2301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oleg Korenok (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edvcuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.