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The Distribution of College Graduate Debt, 1990 to 2008: A Decomposition Approach

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Abstract
Despite tremendous recent interest in the subject of student debt by both researchers and policymakers, little is known about how the distribution of college graduate debt has been evolving and what factors can explain it. We use National Postsecondary Student Aid Study data from 1990 through 2008 to document the evolution of college graduate debt profiles. We find that growth in debt over the 1990s was rapid and occurred throughout the distribution; during the 2000s, in contrast, debt grew appreciably only for the top quartile. Employing several decomposition techniques, we exploit the richness of the data to explain these shifts. Over the entire horizon, observable characteristics of students and institutions explain about one-third of the debt increase, though this share tends to be higher around the extensive margin and the median and lower in the right tail. While observables -- largely costs -- explain a majority of the increase between 1990 and 1996 and again from 2000 to 2008, they explain nothing over the late 1990s. We offer suggestive evidence that this "unobservable" share was supply-side driven, owing to the advent of both federal unsubsidized Stafford loans and private loans.

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  • Brad J. Hershbein & Kevin Hollenbeck, 2013. "The Distribution of College Graduate Debt, 1990 to 2008: A Decomposition Approach," Upjohn Working Papers 14-204, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:14-204
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2014. "Student Loans and Repayment: Theory, Evidence and Policy," Working Papers 2014-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Fenaba R. Addo & Jason N. Houle & Sharon Sassler, 2019. "The Changing Nature of the Association Between Student Loan Debt and Marital Behavior in Young Adulthood," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 86-101, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    student loans; higher education; NPSAS; Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition; semiparametric reweighting; recentered influence functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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