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Exchange rates and fiscal adjustments: evidence from the OECD and implications for EMU

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  • Lambertini, Luisa
  • Jose Tavares
Abstract
This paper characterizes monetary and exchange-rate policies during successful and unsuccessful fiscal adjustments by analyzing the OECD economies over the period 1970 to 1998. We find that successful adjustments are almost always preceded by large nominal and real exchange rate depreciations while unsuccessful adjustments are preceded by revaluations and followed by depreciations. The extreme adjustments of Ireland and Denmark in the 1990s fit this pattern of depreciation for success very closely. Early depreciation is a significant and quantitatively important predictor of the persistence of adjustment: each 1 percent of depreciation in the two years preceding a fiscal adjustment leads to approximately 2 percent increase in the probability of success. Since the size of the typical pre-adjustment depreciation is 5%, this is an important effect. When compared to an indicator of the composition of the fiscal adjustment, the reliance on spending cuts, the two variables have similar quantitative impacts on the likelihood of persistence. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of the depreciation period, the persistence of the adjustment, and whether we use effective, DM or US$ exchange rates. Monetary policy does not play a significant role in fiscal adjustments. Our results suggest that attaining persistent fiscal adjustment within EMU is likely to become a more costly endeavor than it was beforehand, as EMU members have adopted a single currency and therefore abandoned the use of exchange rate policies vis-a-vis each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambertini, Luisa & Jose Tavares, 2002. "Exchange rates and fiscal adjustments: evidence from the OECD and implications for EMU," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    2. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 66-113.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 31-63, February.
    2. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?," IMF Working Papers 2004/157, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland," Working Papers 2002:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Martin Larch & Alessandro Turrini, 2011. "Received Wisdom And Beyond: Lessons From Fiscal Consolidation In The Eu," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Benedict Clements & Erwin R. Tiongson, 2005. "What sustains fiscal consolidations in emerging market countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 307-321.
    6. Paulo Roberto Arvate & Marcos Felipe Mendes Lopes, 2007. "Institutional Changes, Incentive Schemes And The Decision To Undertake Fiscal Adjustments," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 010, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 450, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
    11. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
    12. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Erwin H Tiongson & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2003. "What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2003/224, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
    14. Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004. "Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September.
    15. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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