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Technology foresight and industrial strategy in developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Pietrobelli C.
  • Puppato F.

    (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract
When Technology Foresight TF began to be adopted in industrial countries, it tended to be still somewhat a marginal activity in developing countries. It was then believed that TF and its prediction of the future was a matter that only highly industrialised countries could endeavour to achieve, being more engaged and interested in frontier and new to the world innovation. Today globalisation, increased complexity, competition and fast technical change, have radically transformed the range of economic activities that developing countries can perform. Production is internationally fragmented and organised along global value chains. Dense flows of knowledge and technology are available, but need to be fully exploited and employed within coherent industrial strategies. A specialisation by technology and learning has become the dominant paradigm and developing countries must detect opportunities for future technological and productive specialisation in order to catch up and forge ahead. Yet, often TF exercises do not go hand in hand with the design of a concrete policy strategy to promote emerging countries productive development and catching up. This paper analyses how and to what extent TF programmes are needed in developing countries given the new prevailing global context. It argues that the link between TF and broader industrial development strategy needs to be taken seriously in light of its role to shape technological change and economic growth, and that TF and industrial development strategy need to be coherently designed and implemented. We provide preliminary support to this argument by discussing the theoretical foundations of TF and industrial strategy and their justification, and then reviewing some relevant examples from Brazil, Chile and South Korea.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietrobelli C. & Puppato F., 2015. "Technology foresight and industrial strategy in developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 2015-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2015016
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    File URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2015/wp2015-016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Morrison & Carlo Pietrobelli & Roberta Rabellotti, 2008. "Global Value Chains and Technological Capabilities: A Framework to Study Learning and Innovation in Developing Countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 39-58.
    2. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. John Ouma‐Mugabe & Anthon Botha & Petrus Letaba, 2024. "Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub‐Saharan Africa," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(S1), June.
    4. Andrea Morrison & Carlo Pietrobelli & Roberta Rabellotti, 2006. "Global Value Chains and Technological Capabilities: A Framework to Study Industrial Innovation in Developing Countries," KITeS Working Papers 192, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Dec 2006.
    5. Anastassios Pouris & Portia Raphasha, 2015. "Priorities Setting with Foresight in South Africa," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 66-79.
    6. Jeong-Dong Lee & Chulwoo Baek & Sira Maliphol & Jung-In Yeon, 2019. "Middle Innovation Trap," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 6-18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial Policy; Technological Change; Government Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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