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Forecasting Regional Long-Run Energy Demand: A Functional Coefficient Panel Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yoosoon Chang

    (Department of Economics, Indiana University)

  • Yongok Choi

    (School of Economics, Chung-Ang University)

  • Chang Sik Kim

    (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University)

  • J. Isaac Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia)

  • Joon Y. Park

    (Department of Economics, Indiana University and Sungkyunkwan University)

Abstract
Published in Energy Economics (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105117) Previous authors have pointed out that energy consumption changes both over time and nonlinearly with income level. Recent methodological advances using functional coefficients allow panel models to capture these features succinctly. In order to forecast a functional coefficient out-of-sample, we use functional principal components analysis (FPCA), reducing the problem of forecasting a surface to a much easier problem of forecasting a small number of smoothly varying time series. Using a panel of 180 countries with data since 1971, we forecast energy consumption to 2035 for Germany, Italy, the US, Brazil, China, and India.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2019. "Forecasting Regional Long-Run Energy Demand: A Functional Coefficient Panel Approach," Working Papers 1915, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:1915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Malin C. Jensen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2023. "Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective," Working Papers No 15/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," Working Papers No 01/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Brantley Liddle, 2022. "What Is the Temporal Path of the GDP Elasticity of Energy Consumption in OECD Countries? An Assessment of Previous Findings and New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-12, May.
    9. Wang, You & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Analyzing the difference evolution of provincial energy consumption in China using the functional data analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Zhao, Jing & Miller, J. Isaac & Binfield, Julian & Thompson, Wyatt, 2022. "Modeling and Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Support in the Developing Countries," Commissioned Papers 321785, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Bennedsen, Mikkel & Hillebrand, Eric & Jensen, Sebastian, 2023. "A neural network approach to the environmental Kuznets curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    functional coefficient panel model; functional principal component analysis; energy consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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