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EMU membership and business cycle phases in Europe: a Markov switching VAR analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Beine
  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Khalid Sekkat
Abstract
Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michel Beine & Bertrand Candelon & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "EMU membership and business cycle phases in Europe: a Markov switching VAR analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10441, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10441
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    4. George S. Tavlas, 2004. "Benefits and Costs of Entering the Eurozone," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 89-106, Spring/Su.
    5. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    7. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    10. Ilze Kalnina & Natalia Sizova, 2015. "Estimation of volatility measures using high frequency data (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 3-14, May.
    11. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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