[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ubc/bricol/erwin_diewert-2015-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data

Author

Listed:
  • Diewert, W. Erwin
  • Nishimura , Kiyohiko G.
  • Shimizu, Chihiro
  • Watanabe, Tsutomu
Abstract
The paper proposes a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. The method is based on the present value approach, but the way in which current operating income and the capitalization rate are estimated differs from the traditional method. The traditional method uses a hedonic regression with appraisal information on properties as the dependent variable in order to estimate the capitalization factor. We compare this method with a method that replaces appraisal information with stock market valuations (adjusted for debt). We also run alternative hedonic regressions, restricting the sample of properties to those which are associated with new rental contracts, which may contain more information on future cash flows from properties. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 400 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2001 to 2013, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Diewert, W. Erwin & Nishimura , Kiyohiko G. & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2015. "Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2015-16, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 04 Aug 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubc:bricol:erwin_diewert-2015-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2015/08/pdf_paper_erwin-diewert-15-04EstimatingQualityAdjustedCommerical.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2009-159 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2017. "Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 492-519, September.
    3. Jim Clayton & David Geltner & Stanley W. Hamilton, 2001. "Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuations: Evidence from Individual Appraisals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 337-360, March.
    4. Neil Crosby & Colin Lizieri & Patrick McAllister, 2010. "Means, motive and opportunity? Disentangling client influence on performance measurement appraisals," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 181-201, April.
    5. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
    6. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox & Chihiro Shimizu, 2016. "Commercial Property Price Indexes And The System Of National Accounts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 913-943, December.
    7. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    8. Neil Crosby & Steven Devaney & Tony Key & George Matysiak, 2003. "Valuation Accuracy: Reconciling the Timing of the Valuation and Sale," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2003-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    9. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2010-063 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2012. "Estimating Real Estate Price Movements for High Frequency Tradable Indexes in a Scarce Data Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 522-543, August.
    11. Steven Devaney & Roberto Martinez Diaz, 2011. "Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 269-289, June.
    12. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2007-322 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hayashi, Fumio & Inoue, Tohru, 1991. "The Relation between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 731-753, May.
    14. Steven Devaney & Roberto Martinez Diaz, 2010. "Transaction Based Indices For The Uk Commercial Property Market: Exploration And Evaluation Using Ipd Data," ERES eres2010_063, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    15. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    17. Marc K. Francke & Gerjan A. Vos, 2004. "The Hierarchical Trend Model for Property Valuation and Local Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 179-208, March.
    18. Henry Pollakowski & David Geltner, 2007. "A Set of Indexes for Trading Commercial Real Estate Based on the Real Capital Analytics Transaction Prices Database," ERES eres2007_322, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    20. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Anomalies: The Law of One Price in Financial Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 191-202, Fall.
    21. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "The Paris OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes: Conclusions and Future Directions," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-12-12, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
    22. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu, 2003. "Distortion in Land Price Information---Mechanism in Sales Comparables and Appraisal Value Relation---," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-195, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    23. Joseph T.L. Ooi & Seow‐Eng Ong & Poh‐Har Neo, 2011. "The Wealth Effects of Property Acquisitions: Evidence from Japanese and Singaporean REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 487-505, September.
    24. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "A Conceptual Framework for Commercial Property Price Indexes," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2013-44, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2013.
    25. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2007. "Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble, Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 475-496, November.
    26. Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
    27. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masatomo Suzuki & Seow Eng Ong & Yasushi Asami & Chihiro Shimizu, 2023. "Long-Run Renewal of REIT Property Portfolio Through Strategic Divestment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 1-40, January.
    2. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2020. "Alternative Land‐Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 784-824, December.
    3. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "A Conceptual Framework for Commercial Property Price Indexes," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 4, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The System of National Accounts and Alternative Approaches to the Construction of Commercial Property Price Indexes," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 181-219, Springer.
    5. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox & Chihiro Shimizu, 2016. "Commercial Property Price Indexes And The System Of National Accounts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 913-943, December.
    6. Yu Cheng Lin & Chyi Lin Lee & Graeme Newell, 2019. "The significance of residential REITs in Japan as an institutionalised property sector," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 363-379, May.
    7. Robbie Lin & Chyi Lin Lee & Graeme Newell, 2019. "The significance of Residential REITs in Japan as an Institutionalized property sector," ERES eres2019_122, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2020. "Alternative Land‐Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 784-824, December.
    2. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox & Chihiro Shimizu, 2016. "Commercial Property Price Indexes And The System Of National Accounts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 913-943, December.
    3. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The System of National Accounts and Alternative Approaches to the Construction of Commercial Property Price Indexes," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 181-219, Springer.
    4. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.
    5. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2013. "The London Commercial Property Price Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 588-616, November.
    6. Shimizu, Chihiro & Imai, Satoshi & Diewert, Erwin, 2016. "Alternative Approaches to Housing Services and Japanese CPI: -Bias from Nominal Rigidity of Rents-," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 35, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
    8. Mick Silver & Brian Graf, 2014. "Commercial Property Price Indexes: Problems of Sparse Data, Spatial Spillovers, and Weighting," IMF Working Papers 2014/072, International Monetary Fund.
    9. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "New Estimates for the Price of Housing in the Japanese CPI," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 299-323, Springer.
    10. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    11. Mick Silver, 2016. "How to Better Measure Hedonic Residential Property Price Indexes," IMF Working Papers 2016/213, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    13. Kristoffer B. Birkeland & Allan D. D'Silva & Roland Füss & Are Oust, 2021. "The Predictability of House Prices: "Human Against Machine"," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 139-183.
    14. Lewe, Stefan, 2003. "Wachstumseffiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 20042, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    15. Jinji, Naoto & Zhang, Xingyuan & Haruna, Shoji, 2019. "Does a firm with higher Tobin’s q prefer foreign direct investment to foreign outsourcing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Masafumi Kozuka, 2014. "Marginal q and Firms' Capital Investments: Evidence from Time Series Data of Japanese Manufacturing Industries," Discussion Papers 1411, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    17. Cummins, Jason G. & Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 1996. "Tax reforms and investment: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1-2), pages 237-273, October.
    18. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    19. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    20. Michael P. O'Malley, 1996. "Tax exhaustion, firm investment, and leasing; a test of the Q model of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial property price indexes; REIT; quality adjusted price index; hedonic regressions; Tobin’s q; risk premium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ubc:bricol:erwin_diewert-2015-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maureen Chin (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economics.ubc.ca/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.