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Fiscal Incidence, Inequality and Poverty in Kenya: A CEQ Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Damiano Kulundu Manda
  • Reuben Mutegi
  • Samuel Kipruto
  • Moses Muriithi
  • Paul Samoei
  • Martine Oleche
  • Germano Mwabu
  • Stephen D. Younger
  • Anda David
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of fiscal policy actions by the Government of Kenya on inequality and poverty. The paper uses the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) dataset for 2015/16 combined with administrative data for the same period to construct various income concepts that are used in an analysis of welfare effects of fiscal measures following the methodology developed by the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Institute (Lustig, 2018). The results show that the combined impact of government taxes and expenditure actions is to reduce inequality and increase poverty, a finding that is similar to effects reported in CEQ studies done in other African countries, such as Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia. The study also finds that people in the first six deciles of the income distribution are net beneficiaries of taxation plus all social expenditures while those at the richer three deciles are net tax payers, indicating that individually and jointly, taxation and social spending in Kenya are progressive. On a cash only basis (i.e., excluding in-kind health and education benefits), however, only the first decile is a net beneficiary, largely because indirect taxes are paid by everyone, including the poor. This is despite the fact that, contrary to expectation, indirect taxes in Kenya are generally progressive. However, direct taxes are significantly more progressive than the indirect taxes, i.e., they are paid at higher rates in richer deciles. Further, cash and near-cash transfers, basic education and health benefits are pro-poor while tertiary education benefits are not. Cash and near-cash transfers lead to a reduction in poverty. Finally, simulation results show that increasing cash transfer to existing beneficiaries by 50% and increasing coverage could lead to greater reduction in poverty and inequality. The main conclusion of our analysis is that Kenya’s fiscal policy can be redesigned to support both inequality and poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Damiano Kulundu Manda & Reuben Mutegi & Samuel Kipruto & Moses Muriithi & Paul Samoei & Martine Oleche & Germano Mwabu & Stephen D. Younger & Anda David, 2020. "Fiscal Incidence, Inequality and Poverty in Kenya: A CEQ Assessment," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 101, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tul:ceqwps:101
    as

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    File URL: http://repec.tulane.edu/RePEc/ceq/ceq101.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marisa Bucheli & Nora Lustig & Máximo Rossi & Florencia Amábile, 2014. "Social Spending, Taxes, and Income Redistribution in Uruguay," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 413-433, May.
    2. Sean Higgins & Nora Lustig & Julio Ramirez & Billy Swanson, 2013. "Social Spending, Taxes and Income Redistribution in Paraguay," Working Papers 1311, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sean Higgins & Claudiney Pereira, 2013. "The effects of Brazil's high taxation and social spending on the distribution of household income," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 07, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
    4. Jon Jellema & Nora Lustig & Astrid Haas & Sebastian Wolf, 2016. "The Impact of Taxes, Transfers, and Subsidies on Inequality and Poverty in Uganda," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 53, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    5. Sean Higgins & Nora Lustig & Julio Ramirez & William Swanson, 2013. "Social Spending, taxes and income redistribution in Paraguay," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1311, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    6. Odusola, Ayodele, 2017. "Fiscal Space, Poverty and Inequality in Africa," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 268726, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    7. Nora Lustig & Carola Pessino & John Scott, 2013. "The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay: An Overview," Working Papers 1313, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    8. John Scott, 2013. "Redistributive Impact and Efficiency of Mexico's Fiscal System," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 08, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
    9. Sean Higgins & Claudiney Pereira, 2013. "The effects of Brazil's high taxation and social spending on the distribution of household income," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1307, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
    10. Nora Lustig & Florencia Amábile & Marisa Bucheli & George Gray Molina & Sean Higgins & Miguel Jaramillo & Wilson Jiménez Pozo & Veronica Paz Arauco & Claudiney Pereira & Carola Pessino & Máximo Rossi , 2013. "The impact of taxes and social spending on inequality and poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 13, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
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    12. Ruth Hill & Gabriela Inchauste & Nora Lustig & Eyasu Tsehaye & Tassew Woldehanna, 2017. "A Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Ethiopia," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 41, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
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    16. John Scott, 2013. "Redistributive Impact and Efficiency of Mexico's Fiscal System," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1308, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal incidence; CEQ methodology; poverty; inequality; concentration coefficients; Kenya;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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