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Modelling Australia’s imports of goods and services

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Beames

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Michael Kouparitsas

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract
This paper adds to the relatively scant Australian literature on modelling the demand and supply of Australian imports. We build on earlier demand modelling by deriving conditional import demand relationships via representative household/firm-level utility-maximisation/cost-minimisation problems, which explicitly assume households/firms have both a taste for variety and rival sources of supply. Our estimates of disaggregated price elasticities are consistent with earlier studies in finding relatively low substitutability between imported and domestically produced varieties. Our derivation of the long-run supply framework also adds to the existing literature by explaining why it is necessary for researchers to employ trade-weighted foreign prices in place of individual country prices and providing conditions under which this approach is consistent with the underlying theory. We find that the extent of the foreign cost pass-through to import prices depends critically on the choice of foreign cost variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Beames & Michael Kouparitsas, 2015. "Modelling Australia’s imports of goods and services," Treasury Working Papers 2015-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Jun 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2015_2
    as

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    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2015/working-paper-2015-02/Downloads/PDF/TWP-2015-02.ashx
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elaine Chung & Marion Kohler & Christine Lewis, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-16, September.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:68:y:1992:i:201:p:151-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    4. Jacqueline Dwyer & Ricky Lam, 1994. "Explaining Import Price Inflation: A Recent History of Second Stage Pass-through," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9407, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paflioti, Persa & Vitsounis, Thomas K. & Teye, Collins & Bell, Michael G.H. & Tsamourgelis, Ioannis, 2017. "Box dynamics: A sectoral approach to analyse containerized port throughput interdependencies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 396-413.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Import prices; price elasticity of imports; income elasticity of imports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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