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Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at least) in the Short Run?

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Listed:
  • Bardey, David
  • Fernandez, Manuel
  • Gravel, Alexis
Abstract
Using detailed daily information covering 100 countries and an event-study approach, we estimate the short run eects of implementing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on the spread of the COVID-19 virus at the early stages of the pandemic. We study the impact of two NPIs {stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures{ on three outcomes: daily residential and workplace mobility; the daily growth rate of cases; and the daily growth rate of fatalities. We find that immediately after NPIs were implemented, mobility declined by 0.2 standard deviation (SD), and two weeks afterwards it was down by 0.7 SDs. 25 days after the NPIs were implemented, the daily growth rate of cases and deaths was lower by 10% and 8.4% respectively. Our results reveal that between 53 and 72 percent of the reduction of the daily growth rate of cases and deaths associated with a reduction of mobility is caused by NPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardey, David & Fernandez, Manuel & Gravel, Alexis, 2021. "Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at least) in the Short Run?," TSE Working Papers 21-1189, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:125290
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms," NBER Working Papers 27360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "When Do Shelter‐In‐Place Orders Fight Covid‐19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States And Adoption Time," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 29-52, January.
    3. Christopher J. Cronin & William N. Evans, 2020. "Private Precaution and Public Restrictions: What Drives Social Distancing and Industry Foot Traffic in the COVID-19 Era?," NBER Working Papers 27531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fang, Hanming & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 323-344.
    6. James Sears & J. Miguel Villas-Boas & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas & Vasco Villas-Boas, 2023. "Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 71-95.
    7. Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19 Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra y Marcela Eslava," Documentos CEDE 18193, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    9. Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho, 0. "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 323-344.
    10. Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia & Dhaval Dave, 2020. "Did California’s Shelter-in-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects," NBER Working Papers 26992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Measurement and effect on mobility

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Miquel Vidal-Bover, 2022. "Decentralisation, unfunded mandates, and the regional response to the covid-19 pandemic," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2214, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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