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On the Importance of Verifying Forecasting Results

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  • A. Talha Yalta
  • Olaf Jenal
Abstract
We discuss the various sources of error in numerical computations with the use of examples from the literature relevant to time series analysis. We also submit a case where, by manual verification, we were able to discover a plausible forecast to be erroneous due to a number of software flaws in the XLSTAT addin for Microsoft Excel. Furthermore, after discussing the alternative techniques for implementing the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology on a computer, we show that different approaches can cause considerable discrepancies in the results across different programs, and even within a single software system.
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Suggested Citation

  • A. Talha Yalta & Olaf Jenal, 2008. "On the Importance of Verifying Forecasting Results," Working Papers 0804, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    20. Yalta, A. Talha, 2008. "The accuracy of statistical distributions in Microsoft® Excel 2007," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4579-4586, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hargreaves, Bruce R. & McWilliams, Thomas P., 2010. "Polynomial Trendline function flaws in Microsoft Excel," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1190-1196, April.
    2. A. Yalta & A. Yalta, 2010. "Should Economists Use Open Source Software for Doing Research?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 371-394, April.
    3. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Gaseous and Solid Air Pollutants Concentrations and Emissions in the EU, with Particular Emphasis on Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Yalta, A. Talha & Schreiber, Sven, 2012. "Random Number Generation in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 50(c01).
    5. McCullough, Bruce D. & Yalta, A. Talha, 2013. "Spreadsheets in the Cloud - Not Ready Yet," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i07).
    6. A. Talha Yalta & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2009. "Wilkinson Tests and gretl," EHUCHAPS, in: Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009, edition 1, chapter 16, pages 243-251, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    7. Guy Mélard, 2014. "On the accuracy of statistical procedures in Microsoft Excel 2010," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1095-1128, October.
    8. Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), 2009. "Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009," UPV/EHU Books, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, edition 1, number 01, June.

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