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The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Tarek Hassan

    (Boston University)

  • Laurence van Lent

    (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)

  • Stephan Hollander

    (Tilburg University)

  • Ahmed Tahoun

    (London Business School)

Abstract
Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world; these measures are based on the proportion of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on the costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate effects of the different types of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that the impact of Brexit- related uncertainty extends far beyond British or even European firms; US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have also reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects from Brexit (the first moment) should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, limited trade access, and the costs of post-Brexit operational adjustments. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet significantly affected firm actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarek Hassan & Laurence van Lent & Stephan Hollander & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Working Papers Series 106, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:106
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp106
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp106
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    3. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
    4. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    7. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2024. "The negative impact of disintegration on trade: The case of Brexit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2024. "Supply chain risk: Changes in supplier composition and vertical integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Leonardo Gambacorta & Byeungchun Kwon & Taejin Park & Pietro Patelli & Sonya Zhu, "undated". "CB-LMs: language models for central banking," BIS Working Papers 1215, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Richard A. Benton & J. Adam Cobb & Timothy Werner, 2022. "Firm partisan positioning, polarization, and risk communication: Examining voluntary disclosures on COVID‐19," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 697-723, April.
    12. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 330-354, August.
    13. Campello, Murillo & Cortes, Gustavo S. & d’Almeida, Fabrício & Kankanhalli, Gaurav, 2022. "Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(8), pages 3178-3222, December.
    14. Agnes Norris Keiller, 2024. "Brexit and investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp2025, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    16. Liu, Yi & Jin, Justin & Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Firm-level political sentiment and corporate tax avoidance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Lopez-Lira, Alejandro, 2021. "Why do managers disclose risks accurately? Textual analysis, disclosures, and risk exposures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    19. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Cheng, Sirui & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Qingfeng, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm resilience in China: Evidence from the Sino-US trade war," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Berg, Tobias & Saunders, Anthony & Schäfer, Larissa & Steffen, Sascha, 2021. "Brexit and the contraction of syndicated lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 66-82.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; uncertainty; sentiment; machine learning; cross-country effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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