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Market Participants Neither Commit Predictable Errors nor Conform to REH: Evidence from Survey Data of Inflation Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Frydman

    (New York University)

  • Joshua Stillwagon

    (Babson College)

Abstract
We develop a novel characterization of participants` forecasts with a mixture of normal variables arising from a Markov component. Using this characterization, we formulate five behavioral specifications, including four implied by the diagnostic expectations approach, as well as three implied by REH, and derive several new predictions for Coibion and Gorodnichenko`s regression of forecast errors on forecast revisions. Predictions of all eight specifications are inconsistent with the observed instability of individual CG regressions` coefficients, based on inflation forecasts from 24 professionals. Our findings suggest how to build on key insights of the REH and behavioral approaches in specifying individuals` forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Frydman & Joshua Stillwagon, 2021. "Market Participants Neither Commit Predictable Errors nor Conform to REH: Evidence from Survey Data of Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Series inetwp163, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp163
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp163
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp163
    File Function: First version, 2021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diagnostic Expectations; Rational Expectations; Model Selection; Structural Change; Inflation Forecasts` Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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