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Cyclical Informality and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Mariano Bosch

    (Departamento de Fundamentos del Analisis Economico, Universidad de Alicante)

  • Julen Esteban-Pretel

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract
The proportion of informal or unprotected workers in developing countries is large. In developing economies, the fraction of informal workers can be as high as 70% of total employment. For economies with significant informal sectors, business cycle fluctuations and labor market policy interventions can have important effects on the unemployment rate, and also produce large reallocations of workers between "regulated" and "unregulated" jobs. In this paper, we report the main cyclical patterns of one such labor market: Brazil. We then use the empirical regularities found in the data to build, calibrate, and simulate a two-sector search and matching labor market model, in which firms have the choice of hiring workers formally or informally. We find that our model, built in the spirit of traditional search and matching models, can explain well most of the cyclical properties found in the data. We also show that government policies that decrease the cost of formal jobs, or increase the cost of informality, raise the share of formal employment while reducing unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariano Bosch & Julen Esteban-Pretel, 2009. "Cyclical Informality and Unemployment," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-613, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf613
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf613.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Margolis, David N. & Navarro, Lucas & Robalino, David A., 2012. "Unemployment Insurance, Job Search and Informal Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 6660, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Shutao Cao & Enchuan Shao & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Fixed-term and permanent employment contracts: theory and evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge & Leal Ordonez, Julio, 2013. "The Elasticity of Informality to Taxes and Transfers," MPRA Paper 49568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alonso Ortiz, Jorge & Leal Ordóñez, Julio C., 2011. "Taxes, Transfers and the Distribution of Employment in Mexico," MPRA Paper 32014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2015. "A matching model of endogenous growth and underground firms," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 347-369, December.
    7. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 573-586.
    8. Mr. Ruy Lama & Carlos Urrutia, 2011. "Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/293, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2010. "The Underground Economy in a Matching Model of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 2010-07, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    10. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and the Hidden Economy: An Extended Matching Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 587-605.
    11. D. Lederman & W.F. Maloney & J. Messina, 2011. "The Fall of Wage Flexibility," World Bank Publications - Reports 23575, The World Bank Group.
    12. Corseuil, Carlos Henrique L. & Foguel, Miguel Nathan, 2012. "Economic expansion and increase in labout market formality: A poaching approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(2), June.
    13. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli, 2012. "Underground labor, search frictions and macroeconomic fluctuations," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0159, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    14. Lisi GAETANO, 2010. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: The Role Of The Underground Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 59-69.
    15. Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan & Sarzosa, Miguel, 2012. "Unemployement Protection for Informal Workers in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4542, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Lisi, Gaetano, 2011. "Matching Models of Equilibrium Unemployment: An Overview," MPRA Paper 30191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Norbert Schady, 2009. "Social Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in Latin America : Some Preliminary, and Surprisingly Optimistic, Conjectures," World Bank Publications - Reports 10957, The World Bank Group.
    18. Roxana Maurizio, 2015. "Transitions to Formality and Declining Inequality: Argentina and Brazil in the 2000s," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 46(5), pages 1047-1079, September.
    19. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2015. "Institutions, Informal Labor Markets, and Business Cycle Volatility," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 77-112, October.
    20. World Bank & International Finance Corporation, "undated". "Doing Business in the East African Community 2011," World Bank Publications - Reports 27390, The World Bank Group.
    21. Gaetano Lisi, 2010. "The Strange Case of Dr. “Unemployed” and Mr “Hidden” in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2802-2816.
    22. Lisi, G., 2011. "Entrepreneurship, On-the-job Search and Informal Jobs," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 9, pages 33-46.

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