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Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan: The Impact of Joining the WTO

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Biing-Wen Huang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Meng-Gu Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract
The hog industry, where prices are determined according to an auction system, is of vital importance to the agricultural industry in Taiwan by providing significant production and employment. In particular, there were significant impacts on daily hog prices in the periods before, during and after joining the WTO, which we will refer to as periods of anticipation, adjustment and settlement. The purpose of the paper is to model the growth rates and volatility in daily hog prices in Taiwan from 23 March 1999 to 30 June 2007, which enables an analysis of the effects of joining the WTO. The paper provides a novel application of financial volatility models to agricultural finance. The empirical results have significant implications for risk management and policy considerations in the agricultural industry in Taiwan, especially when significant structural changes, such as joining the WTO, are concerned. The three sub-samples relating to the period before, during and after joining the WTO display significantly different volatility persistence, namely symmetry, asymmetry but not leverage, and leverage, respectively, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of a similar magnitude decrease volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Biing-Wen Huang & Meng-Gu Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan: The Impact of Joining the WTO," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-642, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang, 2013. "Modelling Volatility Size Effects for Firm Performance: The Impact of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," MPRA Paper 45691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2018. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn spot and futures prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1002-1018.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "The impact of China on stock returns and volatility in the Taiwan tourism industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 381-401.
    4. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Wang, Y-A., 2016. "Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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