[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tky/fseres/2002cf145.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Information Technology and Aging Work Force on Labor Demand and Technological Progress in Japanese Industries: 1980-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Kazunori Minetaki

    (Fujitsu Research Institute)

  • Masato Shirai

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Futoshi Kurokawa

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is two-folds. First, we examine the direction and the magnitude of substitutability or complementarity between information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs to know about differential impacts of information and com-munication technology on labor demand. In this way, we can obtain information about what segments of workers information and communication technology can effectively substu-tute for. Second, we estimate contribution of information- and communication-related capital stock and various labor inputs on the value-added growth of the Japanese economy in the recent turbulent era (1980s and 1990s) and explore factors determining technological progress. In particular, we investigate whether rapid accumulation of information-related capital stock has a positive effect on technological progress, examining IT externality. We also discern the effect of compositional changes in labor inputs on technological progress, examining the inflexibility issue and IT-induced technological obsolescence issue. Three remarkable facts emerge from our result with respect to substitutability/complementarity issues. First, IT capital stocks are shown to be significant substitutes for young workers with a low education level, whereas old workers with a low education level are consistently quasi-fixed in all industries under investigation. Second, IT capital stocks have complemen-tary relationship with workers with a high education level in many industries. Third, workers with a high education level and those with a low education level are substitutes. These all suggest that IT investment and human capital accumulation are of utmost importance to overcome possible shortage (in relative terms) of young workers with a low education level caused by rapidly aging population. As for IT externality, we find at first positive correlation between IT stocks and techno-logical progress in manufacturing, suggesting a strong externality effect of IT capital stocks. In the first glance it is very promising, since this suggests that this IT externality can be used for boosting productivity growth. However, the correlation is not robust. First, if non-manufacturing industries are included, the correlation vanishes. Second, if "Electrical Machinery" is excluded from the sample of manufacturing, the correlation also vanishes. Thus, we fail to discern clear-cut evidence for IT externality. Thus, the proposition that IT "revolution"can pop up productivity growth and can counter the pressure of aging population is not supported by our data, although investment in IT-producing industries is surely an important driving force for economic growth through substitution effects. As for the effect of labor force composition on the rate of technological progress, the results do not support that the "inflexible old worker" hypothesis of productivity slowdown. There is no correlation between the rate of technological progress and the ratio of old workers with low education in the total labor inputs. However, the results suggest that information technology development in the 1990s has a negative impact on the past strength of the Japanese economy: productivity increase through high-education workers' learning by doing. In manufacturing industries where Japan has been strong, the rate of technological progress in the 1980s has positive (though weak) correlation with "maturing" high-education labor force. That is, the ratio of old well-educated workers in the total labor inputs has a positive (though weak) effect on technological progress. This suggests that the increased average skill among well-educated workers due to longer experience has a positive effect to improve productivity. However, the relationship changes significantly in the 1990s, and we have rather negative relationship. The nature of technological progress apparently changed adversely.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Kazunori Minetaki & Masato Shirai & Futoshi Kurokawa, 2002. "Effects of Information Technology and Aging Work Force on Labor Demand and Technological Progress in Japanese Industries: 1980-1998," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-145, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2002/2002cf145.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    4. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ohkusa, Yasushi & Ariga, Kenn, 1999. "Estimating the mark-up over marginal cost: a panel analysis of Japanese firms 1971-1994," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1077-1111, November.
    5. Berndt, Ernst R. & Morrison, Catherine J., 1995. "High-tech capital formation and economic performance in U.S. manufacturing industries An exploratory analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-43, January.
    6. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
    7. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1992. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 157-212.
    8. Kevin Stiroh, 1999. "Is There a New Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 82-101, July.
    9. Blackorby, Charles & Russell, R Robert, 1989. "Will the Real Elasticity of Substitution Please Stand Up? (A Comparison of the Allen/Uzawa and Morishima Elasticities)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 882-888, September.
    10. Masataka Morita & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2000. "Information Technology and Automobile Distribution: A Comparative Study of Japan and the United States," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-96, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Flaig, Gebhard & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Searching for the "Productivity Slowdown": Some Surprising Findings from West German Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 57-65, February.
    12. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    13. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1.
    15. Kiyoshi Kuga, 1979. "On the Symmetry of Robinson Elasticities of Substitution: The General Case," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 46(3), pages 527-531.
    16. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Masato Shirai, 2000. "Fixed Costs, Imperfect Competition and Bias in Technology Measurement: Japan and the United States," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-97, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Masato Shirai, 2000. "Fixed Cost, Imperfect Competition and Bias in Technology Measurement: Japan and The United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 273, OECD Publishing.
    18. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin Hitt, 1996. "Paradox Lost? Firm-Level Evidence on the Returns to Information Systems Spending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(4), pages 541-558, April.
    19. Stiroh, Kevin J., 1999. "Measuring input substitution in thrifts: morishima, allen-uzawa, and cross-price elasticities," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 145-157, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu Liu & Mingde Jia, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Alexia Prskawetz & Thomas Fent, 2007. "Workforce Ageing And The Substitution Of Labour: The Role Of Supply And Demand Of Labour In Austria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 95-126, February.
    3. Kyoji Fukao & Tomohiko Inui & Hiroki Kawai & Tsutomu Miyagawa, 2004. "Sectoral Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan, 1970-98: An Empirical Analysis Based on the JIP Database," NBER Chapters, in: Growth and Productivity in East Asia, pages 177-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Vegard Skirbekk, 2004. "Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 133-154.
    5. Manuel A. Hidalgo Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Mª O.Kean Alonso, 2008. "Labor demand and information technologies: evidence for Spain, 1980-2005," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2008/13, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sang-Yong Tom Lee & Xiao Jia Guo, 2004. "Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Spillover: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 722, Econometric Society.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wilson, Daniel J., 2009. "IT and Beyond: The Contribution of Heterogeneous Capital to Productivity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 52-70.
    5. Kiley, Michael T., 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 171-215, December.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    7. Ignacio Hernando & Soledad Núñez, 2004. "The contribution of ICT to economic activity: a growth accounting exercise with Spanish firm-level data," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 315-348, May.
    8. Maryam Farhadi & Rahmah Ismail & Masood Fooladi, 2012. "Information and Communication Technology Use and Economic Growth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-7, November.
    9. Guido Schryen, 2010. "Preserving Knowledge on IS Business Value," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 2(4), pages 233-244, August.
    10. Gianfranco E. Atzeni & OA Carboni, 2004. "ICT productivity and firm propensity to innovative investment: learning effect evidence from italian micro data," Working Paper CRENoS 200414, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. Hyunbae Chun & Sung‐Bae Mun, 2006. "Substitutability and Accumulation of Information Technology Capital in U.S. Industries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 1002-1015, April.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Hélène Baudchon & Jérôme Creel & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Eloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux & Patrick Musso & Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Gilles , 2005. "Potential Growth in the EU : Prospects from Technical Progress and Eastern Enlargment," Working Papers hal-03458887, HAL.
    14. Marcin Piatkowski, 2003. "The Contribution of ICT Investment to Economic Growth and Labor Productivity in Poland 1995-2000," Development and Comp Systems 0308002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ronia Hawash & Guenter Lang, 2010. "The Impact of Information Technology on Productivity in Developing Countries," Working Papers 19, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    16. Klodt, Henning, 2001. "The Essence of the New Economy," Kiel Discussion Papers 375, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Chou, Yen-Chun & Hao-Chun Chuang, Howard & Shao, Benjamin B.M., 2014. "The impacts of information technology on total factor productivity: A look at externalities and innovations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 290-299.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ronia Hawash & Guenter Lang, 2020. "Does the digital gap matter? Estimating the impact of ICT on productivity in developing countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 189-209, June.
    20. Mirko Draca & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Productivity and ICT: A Review of the Evidence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0749, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Wojciech Szewczyk & Anna Sabadash, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of Public Expenditures on Research and Development in Information and Communication Technologies," JRC Research Reports JRC82943, Joint Research Centre.
    22. Atzeni, Gianfranco E. & Carboni, Oliviero A., 2006. "ICT productivity and firm propensity to innovative investment: Evidence from Italian microdata," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-156, June.
    23. Rajiv Kohli & Sarv Devaraj, 2003. "Measuring Information Technology Payoff: A Meta-Analysis of Structural Variables in Firm-Level Empirical Research," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145, June.
    24. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CIRJE administrative office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.