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When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes

In: Behavioral Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffery L. Guyse

    (Technology and Operations Management, College of Business Administration, California State Polytechnic University)

  • Candice H. Huynh

    (Technology and Operations Management, College of Business Administration, California State Polytechnic University)

  • L. Robin Keller

    (The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California)

  • Jay Simon

    (Kogod School of Business, American University)

Abstract
The classic normative model for intertemporal preferences uses a constant discount rate, but behavioral experiments have shown that people do not tend to make choices consistent with a constant discount rate. We first present normative models for time preferences, then discuss descriptive results for choices between single outcomes occurring at different times. People often have different implicit discount rates for different types of scenarios, and several anomalies arise consistently. We contrast those results with findings for preferences for sequences of multiple outcomes over time. People tend to prefer increasing or constant sequences of outcomes over time, especially when the outcomes are non-monetary in nature. This suggests a willingness to wait for improvement, but not in the way that classical discounting would prescribe. We end with prescriptive nudges to improve dynamic consistency and pose questions still to be resolved about how decisions involving outcomes over time can be improved prescriptively.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffery L. Guyse & Candice H. Huynh & L. Robin Keller & Jay Simon, 2024. "When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Florian M. Federspiel & Gilberto Montibeller & Matthias Seifert (ed.), Behavioral Decision Analysis, pages 187-211, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-031-44424-1_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1_10
    as

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