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Differential Mortality by Income and Social Security Progressivity

In: Explorations in the Economics of Aging

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  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • John B. Shoven
  • Sita Nataraj Slavov
Abstract
There is a widespread belief that people with low lifetime labor income have higher age specific mortality and lower remaining life expectancies at age 60 or 65 than those with middle or high lifetime earnings. In this paper, we assess the implications of differential mortality by lifetime income for Social Security progressivity. Social Security has a highly progressive formula to determine monthly benefits in that those with low lifetime earnings get a much higher replacement rate than those with high lifetime earnings. However, recent studies on the mortality gap by lifetime income suggest that at least some of this progressivity is counterbalanced by the longer average lifetimes experienced by higher lifetime income recipients of Social Security. To reassess the progressivity of Social Security, we calculate internal rates of return and net present values for the program under assumptions of differential mortality and compare these measures of progressivity to the same measures calculated assuming all individuals experience average population mortality rates. Under the assumption of constant mortality across lifetime income subgroups, the Social Security system is progressive regardless of the measure shown. However, a good deal of the progressivity is undone or even reversed when differential mortality is taken into account. Creation Date: 2009-05 Revision Date:
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2011. "Differential Mortality by Income and Social Security Progressivity," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in the Economics of Aging, pages 189-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11940
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garrett, Daniel M, 1995. "The Effects of Differential Mortality Rates on the Progressivity of Social Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 457-475, July.
    2. Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2002. "Redistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 11-48, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Henry J. Aaron, 1977. "Demographic Effects on the Equity of Social Security Benefits," International Economic Association Series, in: Martin S. Feldstein & Robert P. Inman (ed.), The Economics of Public Services, chapter 7, pages 151-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Coronado Julia Lynn & Fullerton Don & Glass Thomas, 2011. "The Progressivity of Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, November.
    5. James E Duggan & Robert Gillingham & John S Greenlees, 2008. "Mortality and Lifetime Income: Evidence from U.S. Social Security Records," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 566-594, December.
    6. Julian P. Cristia, 2007. "The Empirical Relationship Between Lifetime Earnings and Mortality: Working Paper 2007-11," Working Papers 19096, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Weinzierl, 2014. "Seesaws and Social Security Benefits Indexing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 137-196.
    2. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    3. Jonas Klos & Tim Krieger & Sven Stöwhase, 2022. "Measuring intra-generational redistribution in PAYG pension schemes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 53-73, January.
    4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "The Effects of Changes in Women's Labor Market Attachment on Redistribution Under the Social Security Benefit Formula," NBER Working Papers 17439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eytan Sheshinski & Frank N. Caliendo, 2021. "Social Security and the increasing longevity gap," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(1), pages 29-52, February.
    6. Péter Hudomiet & Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2019. "Trends in Health and Mortality Inequalities in the United States," Working Papers wp401, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2017. "Redistributive effects of the US pension system among individuals with different life expectancy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 51-74.
    8. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2022. "Social security and longevity risk: An analysis of couples," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 547-579, June.
    9. Péter Hudomiet & Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2020. "The Impact of Growing Health and Mortality Inequalities on Lifetime Social Security Payouts," Working Papers wp412, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Hudomiet, Péter & Hurd, Michael D. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2021. "Forecasting mortality inequalities in the U.S. based on trends in midlife health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2023. "Social security and risk sharing: the role of economic mobility across generations," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1374-1407, October.
    12. John Bailey Jones & Yue Li, 2023. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 320-344, April.
    13. Li Tan & Cory Koedel, 2019. "The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 613-637, October.
    14. Isabelle Joumard & Mauro Pisu & Debbie Bloch, 2012. "Tackling income inequality: The role of taxes and transfers," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 37-70.
    15. Isabelle Joumard & Mauro Pisu & Debra Bloch, 2012. "Less Income Inequality and More Growth – Are They Compatible? Part 3. Income Redistribution via Taxes and Transfers Across OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 926, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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