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Job Flows, Demographics, and the Great Recession

In: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Eva Sierminska
  • Yelena Takhtamanova
Abstract
The recession the US economy entered in December of 2007 is considered to be the most severe downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression. The unemployment rate reached as high as 10.1% in October 2009 – the highest we have seen since the 1982 recession. In this chapter, we examine the severity of this recession compared to those in the past by examining worker flows into and out of unemployment taking into account changes in the demographic structure of the population. We identify the most vulnerable groups of this recession by dissagregating the workforce by age, gender, and race. We find that adjusting for the aging of the US labor force increases the severity of this recession. Our results indicate that the increase in the unemployment rate is driven to a larger extent by the lack of hiring (low outflows), but flows into unemployment are still important for understanding unemployment rate dynamics (they are not as acyclical as some literature suggests) and differences in unemployment rates across demographic groups. We find that this is indeed a “mancession,” as men face higher job separation probabilities, lower job finding probabilities, and, as a result, higher unemployment rates than women. Lastly, there is some evidence that blacks suffered more than whites (again, this difference is particularly pronounced for men).

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Sierminska & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2011. "Job Flows, Demographics, and the Great Recession," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 115-154, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rleczz:s0147-9121(2011)0000032007
    DOI: 10.1108/S0147-9121(2011)0000032007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Piazzalunga & Maria Laura Di Tommaso, 2019. "The increase of the gender wage gap in Italy during the 2008-2012 economic crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, June.
    2. Marina Zannella & Alessandra De Rose, 2019. "Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 17(1), pages 141-162.
    3. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    4. Olivier Bargain & Laurine Martinoty, 2019. "Crisis at home: mancession-induced change in intrahousehold distribution," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 277-308, January.
    5. Gillian Kingston & Frances McGinnity & Philip J. O’Connell, 2013. "Discrimination in the Irish Labour Market: Nationality, Ethnicity and the Recession," Working Papers 201323, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    6. Stephan HUMPERT, 2015. "Gender-based Segregation before and after the Great Recession," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 53-62, Winter.
    7. Yelena Takhtamanova & Eva Sierminska, 2012. "Distributional Impact of the Great Recession on Industry Unemployment for 1976-2011," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1233, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Donna Feir & Rob Gillezeau, 2018. "Return to the Homeland? The Impact of the Great Recession on Employment Outcomes and Labor Mobility for Native Americans," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 60-74, September.
    9. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:53-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Martha Starr, 2014. "Gender, added-worker effects, and the 2007–2009 recession: Looking within the household," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 209-235, June.
    11. Takhtamanova, Yelena F. & Sierminska, Eva, 2016. "Impact of the Great Recession on Industry Unemployment: A 1976-2011 Comparison," IZA Discussion Papers 10340, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; worker flows; job finding rate; separation rate; demographics; gender;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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