[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/cnb/ocpubc/geo2019-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

In: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Filip Novotny
Abstract
Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that the monitored institutions were mostly too optimistic with their economic outlooks for 2018. Their forecasts for GDP growth expected higher levels on average. Likewise, expected consumer price inflation was higher than the subsequent outcomes in most cases. At the same time, the outlooks for shortterm interest rates for the euro area were slightly overestimated, while those for rates in the USA were underestimated. As regards the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar, forecasters expected a stronger dollar for most currency pairs compared to what transpired. The crude oil price was also slightly underestimated in the forecasts on average over the entire assessment period. However, this was in line with the overshot expected inflation in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Novotny, 2019. "Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2019, pages 13-21, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2019/6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/monetary-policy/.galleries/geo/geo_2019/gev_2019_06_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2019/6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Babecky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.