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The risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Macedonia: evidence from credit registry data

In: Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?

Author

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  • Mite Miteski
  • Ana Mitreska
  • Mihajlo Vaskov
Abstract
The last global crisis brought the monetary policy risk-taking channel to the fore, arguing that lingering low interest rates might affect not only the quantity, but the quality of credit extended as well. In line with this debate, this paper is the first effort to empirically investigate the potential existence of the monetary policy risk-taking channel in Macedonia. For this purpose we use a rather unique database of corporate loans, taken from the Credit Registry of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia (NBRM), which is complemented with data from banks’ balance sheets. By using pooled OLS on semi-annual data for the 2010-2017 period, our study points to an inverse relationship between the policy rate and the ex-ante risk rating assigned by the banks, a finding that is supportive to the existence of the risk-taking channel, although the effect is relatively small. The results prove to be robust after controlling for several bank, loan and time specific variables. We also test for possible difference in the risk-taking by banks conditioned on the capitalization level, but the results do not confirm difference in the reaction. The findings of the study are policy-relevant, as they confirm the need for policy makers to be mindful on financial stability impact when making monetary decisions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mite Miteski & Ana Mitreska & Mihajlo Vaskov, 2019. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Macedonia: evidence from credit registry data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisifc:49-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    2. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2017. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 613-654, April.
    3. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    4. Paul Gaggl & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "Does a Low Interest Rate Environment Affect Risk Taking in Austria?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 32-48.
    5. Carla Soares & Diana Bonfim, 2013. "Is there a risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Portugal?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Artashes Karapetyan, 2016. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2016/5, Norges Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdulrahman Alrabiah & Steve Drew, 2020. "Proactive Management of Regulatory Policy Ripple Effects via a Computational Hierarchical Change Management Structure," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, May.
    2. Anna Burova & Henry Penikas & Svetlana Popova, 2021. "Probability of Default Model to Estimate Ex Ante Credit Risk," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(3), pages 49-72, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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