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The Euro Plus Pact: Cost Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries. WWWforEurope Policy Paper No. 15

Author

Listed:
  • Hubert Gabrisch

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

  • Karsten Staehr

    (Tallinn University of Technology)

Abstract
The Euro Plus Pact was approved by 23 EU countries in March 2011 and came into force shortly afterwards. The Pact stipulates a range of quantitative targets meant to strengthen cost competitiveness with the aim of preventing the accumulation of external financial imbalances. This paper uses Granger causality tests and vector autoregressive models to assess the short-term linkages between changes in the relative unit labour cost and changes in the current account balance. The sample consists of annual data for 27 EU countries for the period 1995-2012. The main finding is that changes in the current account balance precede changes in relative unit labour costs, while there is no discernable effect in the opposite direction. The divergence in unit labour costs between the countries in northern Europe and the countries in southern and eastern Europe may thus partly be the result of capital flows from the core of Europe to the periphery prior to the global financial crisis. The results also suggest that the measures in the Euro Plus Pact to restrain the growth of unit labour costs may not affect the current account balance in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The Euro Plus Pact: Cost Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries. WWWforEurope Policy Paper No. 15," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47496, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:47496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ludek Kouba & Michal Madr & Danuse Nerudova & Petr Rozmahel, 2016. "Policy Autonomy, Coordination or Harmonization in the Persistently Heterogeneous European Union?," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 53-71, March.
    3. Costas Lapavitsas, 2019. "Political Economy of the Greek Crisis," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 31-51, March.
    4. Marios-Georgios PSYCHALIS, 2020. "Euro Plus Pact: The Greek Case," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(10), pages 102-124, October.
    5. Caiani, Alessandro & Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "The effects of alternative wage regimes in a monetary union: A multi-country agent based-stock flow consistent model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 389-416.
    6. Ludek Kouba & Michal Mádr & Danuše Nerudová & Petr Rozmahel, 2015. "Policy Autonomy, Coordination or Harmonisation in the Persistently Heterogeneous European Union? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 95," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58136.
    7. Leon Podkaminer, 2018. "‘Old’ Europe’s wage dynamics and trade imbalances: Is there a link?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 395-408, May.

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