[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minsoc/v13y2014i1p29-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is it rational to have rational expectations?

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Kirman
Abstract
In economics in situations where there is uncertainty one has to attribute some attitude to handling this uncertainty to individuals. The original idea was to assume that “people do not make systematic mistakes” for which Muth coined the term “rational expectations”. This was replaced by a much more formal vision which suggested that people fully understand how the economy evolves. In this paper I will argue that the foundations of the “rational expectations” hypothesis which has underpinned most recent modern macroeconomic models, which have, in turn, been used for policymaking, are unsound. From a philosophical point of view the idea that agents can not only forecast the evolution of their environment but also their own evolution seems unjustified. If agents do manage to coordinate on specific expectations these may not be rational and can be self fulfilling. From an econometric point of view, when there are changes in the evolution of the economy, it is not rational to satisfy the hypothesis. Furthermore the empirical and experimental evidence suggests that we should abandon this route. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Kirman, 2014. "Is it rational to have rational expectations?," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(1), pages 29-48, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:13:y:2014:i:1:p:29-48
    DOI: 10.1007/s11299-014-0136-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11299-014-0136-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11299-014-0136-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Aggregate and disaggregate measures of the foreign exchange risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-84, April.
    3. Florian Wagener, 2014. "Expectations in Experiments," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 421-443, August.
    4. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    5. Adair Turner, 2010. "The crisis, conventional economic wisdom, and public policy -super-1," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(5), pages 1317-1329, October.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
    7. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    9. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, September.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 401-426, October.
    11. Akerlof George A & Kranton Rachel, 2010. "Identity Economics," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-3, June.
    12. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    13. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    14. Weidenmier, Marc, 2010. "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. By Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. $35.00," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 766-768, September.
    15. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    16. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
    18. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    19. John Davis, 1995. "Personal identity and standard economic theory," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 35-52.
    20. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
    21. Debreu, Gerard, 1974. "Excess demand functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 15-21, March.
    22. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
    23. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, May.
    24. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
    25. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2010. "On the Mathematical Basis of Inter-temporal Optimization," Economics Series Working Papers 497, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1972. "Market Excess Demand Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 549-563, May.
    27. Simon, Herbert A., 1984. "On the behavioral and rational foundations of economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 35-55, March.
    28. John B. Davis, 2013. "Identity," Chapters, in: Luigino Bruni & Stefano Zamagni (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Reciprocity and Social Enterprise, chapter 19, pages 201-207, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Robert Sugden, 2007. "The value of opportunities over time when preferences are unstable," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 29(4), pages 665-682, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annarita COLASANTE & Antonio PALESTRINI & Alberto RUSSO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2015. "Adaptive Expectations with Correction Bias: Evidence from the lab," Working Papers 409, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    3. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ron Wallace, 2017. "The Signature of Risk: Agent-based Models, Boolean Networks and Economic Vulnerability," Economic Thought, World Economics Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Ya-Chi Huang & Chueh-Yung Tsao, 2018. "Evolutionary Frequency and Forecasting Accuracy: Simulations Based on an Agent-Based Artificial Stock Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 79-104, June.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "La solitudine dell'agente rappresentativo: eterogeneità e interazione per una nuova macroeconomia (The solitude of the representative agant: Heterogeneity and interaction for a new macroeconomics)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 72(287), pages 249-258.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    10. Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2020. "Macroeconomic impacts of the public health response to COVID-19," Working Papers PKWP2011, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Cooray, Arusha & Gangopadhyay, Partha & Das, Narasingha, 2023. "Causality between volatility and the weekly economic index during COVID-19: The predictive power of efficient markets and rational expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Adalbert Mayer, 2022. "An Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model with Endogenous Intertemporal Decision Rules," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 548-579, October.
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Evolutionary Growth Theory," LEM Papers Series 2024/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan Kirman, 2016. "Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 534-572, June.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    3. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
    5. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
    6. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    7. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
    8. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
    9. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.
    11. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    12. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    13. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    14. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    15. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    16. Jakob Grazzini & Domenico Massaro, 2021. "Dispersed information, social networks, and aggregate behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1129-1148, July.
    17. Michelle Baddeley, 2014. "Rethinking the micro-foundations of macroeconomics: insights from behavioural economics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 99-112, April.
    18. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Heterogeneous Adaptive Expectations and Coordination in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper 66578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "Market Efficiencies and Market Risks," Post-Print halshs-00544324, HAL.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Michelle Baddeley, 2017. "Keynes’ psychology and behavioural macroeconomics: Theory and policy," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 28(2), pages 177-196, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:13:y:2014:i:1:p:29-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.