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The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Artatrana Ratha
Abstract
Three earlier studies examined the impact of dollar depreciation on bilateral trade between the United States and her six largest trading partners. They used different methodologies that resulted in different outcomes. In this paper we consider 18 major trading partners of the United States and employ a relatively new method to investigate the short-run as well as the long-run response of the bilateral trade balance to currency depreciation. While as with previous research we are unable to discover any J-curve pattern in the short run, in the long run real depreciation of the dollar has favorable effects on the U.S. trade balance in most cases. Copyright Academy of Economics and Finance 2004

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 32-38, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:28:y:2004:i:1:p:32-38
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02761452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 403-407, August.
    3. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-539, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    2. repec:vuw:vuwecf:16724 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    4. A. Kim, 2009. "An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-226.
    5. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Salman Huseynov & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 83-98, March.
    7. Eliphas Ndou, 2021. "Exchange rate changes, price level and the income effects on trade balance in South Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Shaar, Karam & Khaled, Mohammed, 2017. "Why you should use high frequency data to test the impact of exchange rate on trade," Working Paper Series 20137, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2010. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 1067-1076.
    13. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Altin Tanku, 2006. "Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    15. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2020. "Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 20-37.
    16. Rabeya Khatoon & Md Emran Hasan & Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon & Shahidul Islam & Jeenat Mehareen & Rubaiya Murshed & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Md. Jillur Rahman & Musharrat Shabnam Shuchi, 2022. "Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2739-2770, June.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Export diversification and the S-curve effect in a resource-rich state: evidence from Azerbaijan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 135-154, May.
    19. Shaar, Karam, 2019. "Essays on modern economic issues in international trade, exchange rates and housing," Working Paper Series 8039, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Yazici, Mehmet & Qamarul Islam, M., 2012. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance with EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13.
    21. Mariam Abbas Soharwardi & Mumtaz Ahmad & Muhammad Nouman Shafique, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Deficit in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 215-219.
    22. Karam Shaar & Mohammed Khaled, 2018. "Why you should use high frequency data to test the impact of exchange rate on trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(18), pages 1292-1295, October.
    23. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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