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The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits

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REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) has been suggested as a climate change mitigation strategy that is based on the philosophy to reward countries for reducing their deforestation and forest degradation by financial benefits via the generation of carbon credits. While the potential of REDD has been widely discussed, minor attention has been drawn to the implication of uncertainties and costs associated with the estimation of carbon stock changes. To raise awareness of these issues, we conducted a simulation study for a set of countries that show high to low deforestation rates, which demonstrates that the potential to generate benefits from REDD depends highly on the magnitude of the total error while assessment costs and the price of carbon credits play a minor role. For countries with low deforestation rates REDD is obviously not an option for generating benefits as they would need to implement monitoring systems that are able to estimate carbon stock changes with a total error well below 1 %. Total errors feasible under operational monitoring systems are only sufficient to gain revenues from REDD-regimes under high deforestation rates. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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  • Daniel Plugge & Thomas Baldauf & Michael Köhl, 2013. "The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 247-259, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:247-259
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0524-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valentina Bosetti & Ruben Lubowski (ed.), 2010. "Deforestation and Climate Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13733.
    2. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, September.
    3. Daniel Plugge & Thomas Baldauf & Michael Koehl, 2011. "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD): Why a Robust and Transparent Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) System is Mandatory," Chapters, in: Juan A. Blanco & Houshang Kheradmand (ed.), Climate Change - Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation, IntechOpen.
    4. Waggoner, Paul E., 2009. "Forest Inventories: Discrepancies and Uncertainties," RFF Working Paper Series dp-09-29.pdf, Resources for the Future.
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    1. Till Neeff, 2021. "What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Jichuan Sheng & Weihai Zhou & Alex De Sherbinin, 2018. "Uncertainty in Estimates, Incentives, and Emission Reductions in REDD+ Projects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Jichuan Sheng, 2017. "Effect of Uncertainties in Estimated Carbon Reduction from Deforestation and Forest Degradation on Required Incentive Payments in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, September.
    4. Johanne Pelletier & Jonah Busch & Catherine Potvin, 2015. "Addressing uncertainty upstream or downstream of accounting for emissions reductions from deforestation and forest degradation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 635-648, June.
    5. Robin Matthews & Meine Noordwijk & Eric Lambin & Patrick Meyfroidt & Joyeeta Gupta & Louis Verchot & Kristell Hergoualc’h & Edzo Veldkamp, 2014. "Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance, evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 907-925, August.

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