[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sbp/journl/44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Response of Long-term Interest Rate to Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Noor-e-Saher

    (Scholar at Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi)

  • Mehran Herbert

    (Scholar at Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi)

Abstract
The study analyzes the role of fiscal deficit in explaining movements in long-term interest rate in Pakistan. We have investigated the long run relationship between budget deficit and long-term interest rate along with GDP growth, expected inflation, capital inflows and short-term interest rate during the period from 1975 to 2008 by applying cointegration technique. We have found that a 1 percent increase in the budget deficit leads to more than 40 basis points increase in longterm interest rate in Pakistan thereby increasing the cost of funds for investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Noor-e-Saher & Mehran Herbert, 2010. "Response of Long-term Interest Rate to Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 43-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:journl:44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/research/bulletin/2010/vol6/Responseoflongterminterestrates.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Haldane, Andrew & Hall, Simon & Pezzini, Silvia, 2007. "Financial Stability Paper No 2: A New Approach to Assessing Risks to Financial Stability," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 2, Bank of England.
    4. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2005. "What Can Academics Contribute to the Study of Financial Stability?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 189-203.
    8. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
    9. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, March.
    10. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    11. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    13. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
    14. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asghar Ali & Kevin Daly, 2010. "What Explain Credit Defaults? A Comparative Study," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 51-65.
    2. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    4. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Borio Claudio, 2011. "Implementing a Macroprudential Framework: Blending Boldness and Realism," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, August.
    6. Chia-Chien Chang & Chou-Wen Wang & Szu-Lang Liao, 2009. "The valuation of special purpose vehicles by issuing structured credit-linked notes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 227-256.
    7. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    9. Goetz von Peter, 2003. "A Unified Approach to Credit Crunches, Financial Instability, and Banking Crises," Macroeconomics 0312006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    12. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    13. Peiris, M.U. & Shirobokov, A. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2024. "Does “Lean Against the Wind” monetary policy improve welfare in a commodity exporter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Zhao, Hongbiao, 2011. "Portfolio credit risk of default and spread widening," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43451, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Li Chen & Damir Filipovic, 2003. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps Under Default Correlations and Counterparty Risk," Finance 0303009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    17. Jukka Isohätälä & Alistair Milne & Donald Robertson, 2020. "The Net Worth Trap: Investment and Output Dynamics in the Presence of Financing Constraints," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-32, August.
    18. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Pawel Siarka, 2012. "Implementation of the Stress Test Methods in the Retail Portfolio," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(6), pages 1-2.
    20. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; long term interest rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbp:journl:44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Faisal Saleem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbpgvpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.