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Do the “Three-Point Victory†and “Golden Goal†Rules Make Soccer More Exciting?

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  • Isabelle Brocas
  • Juan D. Carrillo
Abstract
This article argues that a rigorous application of simple game theory tools may provide unambiguous predictions about the behavior of teams in sports. As an illustration, the authors analyze the merits of two controversial changes in soccer rules, namely, the “three-point victory†and the “golden goal.†Building on well-accepted premises, the authors show that contrary to the common belief, the incentives of teams to play offensively may be lower under the three-point victory than under the traditional two-point victory. They also provide clear and simple recommendations for the improvement of these rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo, 2004. "Do the “Three-Point Victory†and “Golden Goal†Rules Make Soccer More Exciting?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(2), pages 169-185, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:5:y:2004:i:2:p:169-185
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002503257207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lazear, Edward P & Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "Rank-Order Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 841-864, October.
    2. Mark Walker & John Wooders, 2001. "Minimax Play at Wimbledon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1521-1538, December.
    3. P.-A. Chiappori, 2002. "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1138-1151, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Geyer, Hannah, 2008. "Theoretische Analyse der Strategienwahl unter der Zwei- und Drei-Punkte-Regel im Fußball," IÖB-Diskussionspapiere 1/08, University of Münster, Institute for Economic Education.
    2. Kendall, Graham & Lenten, Liam J.A., 2017. "When sports rules go awry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(2), pages 377-394.
    3. Lee Yoong Hon & Rasyad A. Parinduri, 2016. "Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 377-395, May.
    4. Julio del Corral & Juan Prieto-Rodríguez & Rob Simmons, 2010. "The Effect of Incentives on Sabotage: The Case of Spanish Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 243-260, June.
    5. Dilger, Alexander & Froböse, Gerrit, 2018. "Effects of the three-point rule in German amateur football," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 3/2018, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    6. Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Tohmé & Fernando Delbianco & Alejandro Neme, 2021. "Effort of rugby teams according to the bonus point system: a theoretical and empirical analysis," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 50(2), pages 447-474, June.
    7. Richard Duhautois & Romain Eyssautier, 2016. "La victoire à trois points dans le football a-t-elle rendu les équipes plus offensives ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(6), pages 1245-1254.
    8. Ricardo Manuel Santos, 2024. "Modelling Strategies in Sports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 57-66, September.
    9. Juan Mendoza & Andrés Rosas, 2013. "Referee Bias in Professional Soccer: Evidence from Colombia," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-38, September.
    10. Alexander Dilger & Hannah Geyer, 2009. "Are Three Points for a Win Really Better Than Two?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-318, June.
    11. Liam J.A. Lenten & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2013. "Policy Timing and Footballers' Incentives," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(6), pages 629-655, December.
    12. Giancarlo Moschini, 2010. "Incentives And Outcomes In A Strategic Setting: The 3‐Points‐For‐A‐Win System In Soccer," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 65-79, January.
    13. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Parfait Munezero, 2020. "Bayesian change-point modelling of the effects of 3-points-for-a-win rule in football," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 248-264, January.
    14. Peter-J. Jost, 2021. "“The ball is round, the game lasts 90 minutes, everything else is pure theoryâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 27-74, January.
    15. Juan D. Carrillo, 2007. "Penalty Shoot-Outs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(5), pages 505-518, October.
    16. Travis J. Lybbert & Troy C. Lybbert & Aaron Smith & Scott Warren, 2012. "Does the Red Flag Rule Induce Risk Taking in Sprint Finishes? Moral Hazard Crashes in Cycling’s Grand Tours," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(6), pages 603-618, December.
    17. Kjetil K. Haugen, 2008. "Point Score Systems and Competitive Imbalance in Professional Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 191-210, April.
    18. Carrillo, Juan, 2006. "Penalty Shoot-Outs: Before or After Extra Time?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ravindra Singh & Ajay Dwivedi & Shikha Gupta & Sumanjeet Singh & Seema Singh, 2022. "Elucidating the moderating role of personality traits in probing the linkage between digital entrepreneurship characteristics and perceived opportunities," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 12(1), pages 175-188, December.
    20. Christopher Magee & Amy Wolaver, 2023. "Crowds and the Timing of Goals and Referee Decisions1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 801-828, August.
    21. Caliendo, Marco & Radic, Dubravko, 2006. "Ten Do It Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth," IZA Discussion Papers 2158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Vincenzo Alfano & Lorenzo Cicatiello & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta & Michele Gallo & Francesca Rotondo, 2021. "Three is a Magic Number: Evidence on the Effects of the Application of the Three-Point Rule in Italy’s Serie A," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 329-356, April.
    23. Ralf Dewenter & Julian Emami Namini, 2013. "How to Make Soccer More Attractive? Rewards for a Victory, the Teams' Offensiveness, and the Home Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 65-86, February.
    24. Ricardo Manuel Santos, 2014. "Optimal Soccer Strategies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 183-200, January.

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