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Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

Listed:
  • Mark S. Bell

    (Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Nicholas L. Miller

    (Watson Institute for International Studies and Department of Political Science, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA)

Abstract
We examine the effect of nuclear weapons on interstate conflict. Using more appropriate methodologies than have previously been used, we find that dyads in which both states possess nuclear weapons are not significantly less likely to fight wars, nor are they significantly more or less belligerent at low levels of conflict. This stands in contrast to previous work, which suggests nuclear dyads are some 2.7 million times less likely to fight wars. We additionally find that dyads in which one state possesses nuclear weapons are more prone to low-level conflict (but not more prone to war). This appears to be because nuclear-armed states expand their interests after nuclear acquisition rather than because nuclear weapons provide a shield behind which states can aggress against more powerful conventional-armed states. This calls into question conventional wisdom on the impact of nuclear weapons and has policy implications for the impact of nuclear proliferation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark S. Bell & Nicholas L. Miller, 2015. "Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(1), pages 74-92, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:59:y:2015:i:1:p:74-92
    as

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    File URL: http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/59/1/74.abstract
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2019. "Dynamic Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 334-354, November.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi, 2019. "The Persistence of Weapons: Global Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/068, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2019. "Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence," Working Papers 19/008, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Freire, Danilo & Uzonyi, Gary, 2018. "What Drives State-Sponsored Violence?: Evidence from Extreme Bounds Analysis and Ensemble Learning Models," SocArXiv pzx3q, Center for Open Science.

    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Robert Rauchhaus, 2009. "Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 258-277, April.

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