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The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States

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  • Nermin Yasar
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth in the Commonwealth Independent States during the period 1995–2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed to determine the co-integration relationship among the series and then vector error correction model (VECM) is used to analyse the causality between external debt and income. The obtained results suggest that there is a negative long-term unidirectional causal relationship running from external debt to GDP presenting a strong evidence of existence of debt overhang hypothesis. The possible reasons for this unidirectional causal relationship can be explained by poor management of provided financial resources and incomplete governance in economic transition process along with structural rigidities and immature institutions in these countries which, in the long term, resulted in insufficient capital charged to service external debt. The policymakers in these post-Soviet countries should not use foreign loans to capitalise the deficits in the economies; instead, they should be more determined in employing these funds in the areas that will create national value-added production and, thus, future income. JEL Classification: C10, F34, H63

Suggested Citation

  • Nermin Yasar, 2021. "The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(4), pages 415-429, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:56:y:2021:i:4:p:415-429
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325211018329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kazi Musa & Kazi Sohag & Jamaliah Said & Farha Ghapar & Norli Ali, 2023. "Public Debt, Governance, and Growth in Developing Countries: An Application of Quantile via Moments," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Rima Aloulou & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2023. "The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Samson Edo, 2024. "Comparative Performance of Trade Openness and Sovereign Debt Accumulation in Fostering Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Countries," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 98-116, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Debt; Transition Economies; CIS; Panel Unit Root; ARDL; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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