[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v12y1991i4p117-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Dahl
  • Mine Yücel
Abstract
Conventional wisdom holds that OPEC is a weakly functioning cartel with non-OPEC producers forming a “competitive fringe.†However, several studies have challenged the cartel hypothesis for OPEC with a few even challenging the competitive hypothesis for non-OPEC producers. In this paper, we test competing hypotheses (which include dynamic optimization, targetrevenue, competition, cartel, and swing production) for production decisions for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Recently developed cost data allow these tests to be done on the most general model to date. In our tests, we find no evidence for dynamic optimization. Formal target-revenue models are rejected, but there is some evidence that revenue targeting may influence production for some OPEC countries and a few non-OPEC countries. We find no evidence that any of the OPEC countries behave in a competitive manner. More surprisingly, we find no evidence that the fringe is competitive. Using cointegration tests, we are unable to find formal evidence of coordination in the form of strict cartel behavior or swing production among OPEC countries. Taken as a whole, the evidence suggests that loose coordination or duopoly is most consistent with OPEC behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Dahl & Mine Yücel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(4), pages 117-138, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:4:p:117-138
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-8
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Libecap, Gary D., 1989. "The Political Economy of Crude Oil Cartelization in the United States, 1933–1972," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 833-855, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guy Michaels, 2011. "The Long Term Consequences of Resource‐Based Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 31-57, March.
    2. Hinnerk Gnutzmann & Oskar Kowalewski & Piotr Śpiewanowski, 2020. "Market Structure and Resilience: Evidence from Potash Mine Disasters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 911-933, May.
    3. Balthrop, Andrew T. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2016. "A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-138.
    4. James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 51-82.
    5. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    6. Dye, Alan & Sicotte, Richard, 2006. "How brinkmanship saved Chadbourne: Credibility and the International Sugar Agreement of 1931," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 223-256, April.
    7. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2020. "Oil Shocks and Total Factor Productivity in Resource-Poor Economies: The Cases of France and Germany," TSE Working Papers 20-1126, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Elizabeth Hoffman & Gary D. Libecap, 1994. "Political Bargaining and Cartelization in the New Deal: Orange Marketing Orders," NBER Chapters, in: The Regulated Economy: A Historical Approach to Political Economy, pages 189-222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Griffin, James M & Xiong, Weiwen, 1997. "The Incentive to Cheat: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 289-316, October.
    10. Benjamin Bridgman & Shi Qi & James A. Schmitz, 2015. "Cartels Destroy Productivity: Evidence from the New Deal Sugar Manufacturing Cartel, 1934-74," Staff Report 519, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Chen, Yan, 2021. "Evaluating the influence of energy prices on tight oil supply with implications on the impacts of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Gary D. Libecap, 2013. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations," NBER Working Papers 19501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gary D. Libecap, 2014. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(2), pages 424-479, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OPEC behavior; Target-revenue model; Competitive model; Uncertianty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:4:p:117-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.