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The Development of a Migration Model for England and Wales: Overview and Modelling Out-Migration

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  • A Stewart Fotheringham

    (Director, National Centre of Geocomputation, National University of Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland)

  • Phil Rees

    (School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England)

  • Tony Champion

    (Spatial Analysis Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, England)

  • Stamatis Kalogirou

    (National Centre of Geocompuation, National University of Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland)

  • Andy R Tremayne

    (Department of Economics, University of York, York YO10 5DD, England)

Abstract
This paper reports the results of an extensive project to model interregional migration within England and Wales. The project took place over a two-year period and was sponsored by the UK Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (formerly the Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions). The results of the study are reported in three separate papers. In this paper we present an overview of the project and then describe in detail both the process of modelling out-migration rates from origins across England and Wales and the calibration results from this modelling stage. The results yield important information on the determinants of out-migration and population re-distribution within England and Wales. In paper 2 we describe the modelling of the destination choices of migrants and the calibration results from such models. In paper 3 we tie both the out-migration and the destination choice results together into a mapping and visualisation system (MIGMOD) which can be used to assess the impacts of various policies on population movements in England and Wales. The simple policy scenarios reported in this third paper are illustrative and indicative of the model's potential, rather than necessarily being a true reflection of the effects of policy changes. The three papers contribute substantially to the existing migration literature because they present the most exhaustive analysis of the determinants of both out-migration and destination choice that has ever been undertaken. The number of variables in both modelling processes is far larger than has ever been assembled before and the results therefore provide much greater insight into the role of various attributes in determining out-migration rates and in-migration rates than has previously been possible. The papers also provide an interesting lesson in a problem rarely encountered—that of having too much data.

Suggested Citation

  • A Stewart Fotheringham & Phil Rees & Tony Champion & Stamatis Kalogirou & Andy R Tremayne, 2004. "The Development of a Migration Model for England and Wales: Overview and Modelling Out-Migration," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(9), pages 1633-1672, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:36:y:2004:i:9:p:1633-1672
    DOI: 10.1068/a36136
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    Cited by:

    1. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Kaplanis, Ioannis, 2011. "Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment," Working Papers 2072/179671, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    2. Leo JG Van Wissen & Nicole Gaag & Phil Rees & John Stillwell, 2005. "In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches," ERSA conference papers ersa05p787, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Thomas Niedomysl, 2008. "Residential Preferences for Interregional Migration in Sweden: Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Geographical Determinants," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(5), pages 1109-1131, May.
    4. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "The spatial structure debate in spatial interaction modeling: 50 years on," OSF Preprints 42vxn, Center for Open Science.
    5. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Ian Smith & Rob Atkinson, 2011. "Mobility and the smart, green and inclusive Europe," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 26(6-7), pages 562-576, September.
    7. Adam Dennett & Alan Wilson, 2013. "A Multilevel Spatial Interaction Modelling Framework for Estimating Interregional Migration in Europe," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(6), pages 1491-1507, June.

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