[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/statec/0074.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What determine inflation in Pakistan: an investigation through structural equation modeling by using time series data for a period from 1975 to 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Uddin , Ijaz

    (Pakistan Institute of Devolvement Economics)

Abstract
Interest rate is the most popular instrument of monetary policy to control inflation around the globe. It is assumed that the tight monetary policy, such as an increase in interest rate, will reduce inflation by reducing aggregate demand in the economy. However, in reality, the use of monetary tightening could be counterproductive. The monetary tightening may increase inflation dates back to 1923 when Gibson (1923) observed that correlation between interest rate and inflation is positive. There are different opinions about how the interest rate affects inflation. The most famous is called Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM). According to the demand side channel of MTM, increase an interest rate, therefore the aggregate demand will decrease and finally, the price level will decrease. However, the supply side channel of MTM, states that the rise of interest rate will increase the cost of production, shifting up the aggregate supply curve. This will create a rise in the general prices level. The problem in that, there are many channels of MTM which can be categorized into demand side and supply side. Many researchers take one channel and make single equation, this leads to missing variable bias. Therefore there is need to take them simultaneously which can be done by (SEM) Structural equation modeling. This research study is very significant, because this research combines both demand and supply channel simultaneously, and removes biasedness through (SEM) structural equation modeling. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test finds that all the variables are stationary at first difference i.e. I (1), except inflation and investment. Firstly, unrestricted structural equation model (USEM) has estimated. The mostly coefficient of USEM has found to insignificant i.e. their probability value more than 50 percent. To remove the insignificant coefficient, we are given these unnecessary coefficients the regression weight is zero for the purpose of getting significant results. Secondly, the restricted structural equation model (RSEM) is estimated. The estimated results reveal that; interest rate has a positive relation with exchange rate and industrial inputs prices, while negative relation with the price of equity and investment. Therefore, the exchange rate, price of imports, price of exports and consumption have a positive relation with inflation while investment, loan, and output have a negative relationship with inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Uddin , Ijaz, 2020. "What determine inflation in Pakistan: an investigation through structural equation modeling by using time series data for a period from 1975 to 2017," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 32(4), pages 54-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:statec:0074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://statecounsellor.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/200406.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
    3. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 4.
    4. Zahoor Hussain Javed & Muhammad Farooq & Maqsood Hussain & Abdur-Rehman Shezad & Safder Iqbal & Shama Akram, 2011. "Impact of Cost-Push and Monetary Factors on GDP Deflator: Empirical Evidence from the Economy of Pakistan," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-63, March.
    5. Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Pervaiz, Zahid & Jan, Sajjad Ahmad & Ali, Amjad & Chaudhary, Amatul R., 2011. "Poverty, inflation and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    6. Imrana Asad & Nisar Ahmad & Zakir Hussain, 2012. "Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Inflation in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(8), pages 983-990.
    7. DI BARTOLO Annamaria, 2000. "Human Capital Estimation through Structural Equation Models with some Categorical Observed Variables," IRISS Working Paper Series 2000-02, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
    8. Afia Malik, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes on Inflation in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 727-737.
    9. Imrana Asad & Nisar Ahmad & Zakir Hussain, 2012. "Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Inflation in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(8), pages 983-990, December.
    10. Musa ATGÜR & N. Oğuzhan ALTAY, 2017. "Examination of the exchange rate and interest rate channels of the monetary transmission mechanism during the inflation targeting: Turkey and Mexico countries examples," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 137-160, Winter.
    11. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    12. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    13. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 2.
    14. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 2.
    15. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2014. "Relationship Between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 3(1), pages 43-58.
    16. Furrukh Bashir & Farzana Yousaf & Huda Aslam, 2016. "Determinants of Inflation Rate in Pakistan: Demand and Supply Side Analysis," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 49-60, January.
    17. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 4.
    18. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    19. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Siyabonga Mndebele & Devi Datt Tewari & Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, 2023. "Testing the Validity of the Quantity Theory of Money on Sectoral Data: Non-Linear Evidence from South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-26, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kritana Prueksakorn & Cheng-Xu Piao & Hyunchul Ha & Taehyeung Kim, 2015. "Computational and Experimental Investigation for an Optimal Design of Industrial Windows to Allow Natural Ventilation during Wind-Driven Rain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Hualin Xie & Jinlang Zou & Hailing Jiang & Ning Zhang & Yongrok Choi, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Arable Land-Use Intensity in China: Toward Sustainable Land Management Using Emergy Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Stephan E. Maurer & Andrei V. Potlogea, 2021. "Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 167-188, January.
    4. Tie Hua Zhou & Ling Wang & Keun Ho Ryu, 2015. "Supporting Keyword Search for Image Retrieval with Integration of Probabilistic Annotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-18, May.
    5. T. Karski, 2019. "Opinions and Controversies in Problem of The So-Called Idiopathic Scoliosis. Information About Etiology, New Classification and New Therapy," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 12(5), pages 9612-9616, January.
    6. Sung-Won Park & Sung-Yong Son, 2017. "Cost Analysis for a Hybrid Advanced Metering Infrastructure in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Wesley Mendes-da-Silva, 2020. "What Makes an Article be More Cited?," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 24(6), pages 507-513.
    8. Martin Valtierra-Rodriguez & Juan Pablo Amezquita-Sanchez & Arturo Garcia-Perez & David Camarena-Martinez, 2019. "Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition on FPGA for Condition Monitoring of Broken Bars in Induction Motors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Akca Yasar & Gokhan Ozer, 2016. "Determination the Factors that Affect the Use of Enterprise Resource Planning Information System through Technology Acceptance Model," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(10), pages 1-91, September.
    10. Julián Miranda & Angélica Flórez & Gustavo Ospina & Ciro Gamboa & Carlos Flórez & Miguel Altuve, 2020. "Proposal for a System Model for Offline Seismic Event Detection in Colombia," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Wisdom Akpalu & Mintewab Bezabih, 2015. "Tenure Insecurity, Climate Variability and Renting out Decisions among Female Small-Holder Farmers in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Wei Chen & Shu-Yu Liu & Chih-Han Chen & Yi-Shan Lee, 2011. "Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting Model for Market Entry Games," Games, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, March.
    13. David Harborth & Sebastian Pape, 2020. "Empirically Investigating Extraneous Influences on the “APCO” Model—Childhood Brand Nostalgia and the Positivity Bias," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Ping Wang & Jie Wang & Guiwu Wei & Cun Wei, 2019. "Similarity Measures of q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Sets Based on Cosine Function and Their Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Peterson, Willis L., 1973. "Publication Productivities Of U.S. Economics Department Graduates," Staff Papers 14105, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    16. Taeyeoun Roh & Yujin Jeong & Byungun Yoon, 2017. "Developing a Methodology of Structuring and Layering Technological Information in Patent Documents through Natural Language Processing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    17. He-Yau Kang & Amy H. I. Lee & Tzu-Ting Huang, 2016. "Project Management for a Wind Turbine Construction by Applying Fuzzy Multiple Objective Linear Programming Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Vasilyeva, Olga, 2021. "Agro-food clusters in the Republic of Kazakhstan: assessment and prospects of development," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 34(2), pages 13-20.
    19. Chris Lytridis & Anna Lekova & Christos Bazinas & Michail Manios & Vassilis G. Kaburlasos, 2020. "WINkNN: Windowed Intervals’ Number kNN Classifier for Efficient Time-Series Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Richard J. Ciotola & Jay F. Martin & Juan M. Castańo & Jiyoung Lee & Frederick Michel, 2013. "Microbial Community Response to Seasonal Temperature Variation in a Small-Scale Anaerobic Digester," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-18, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; output; interest rate; MTM; inflation; cost channel; demand channel; structural equation modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:statec:0074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roman I. Ostapenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.