[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0847.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Analysis for the U.S. of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields on Thirty-Year and Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Cebula, Richard J.

    (Jacksonville University, Davis College of Business, Jacksonville, Florida, U.S.A.)

  • Foley, Maggie

    (Jacksonville University, Davis College of Business, Jacksonville, Florida, U.S.A.)

Abstract
This study empirically investigates the impact of federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on thirty-year and twenty-year U.S. Treasury bonds. After allowing for the exchange rate and a variety of other control variables, it is found that autoregressive two stage least squares estimations for the post-Bretton Woods era reveal that the ex ante real interest rate yields on both of these bonds have been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit. Accordingly, since long-term U.S. Treasury bond issues compete directly with household bond issues (such as home mortgages) as well as corporate bond issues in the financial marketplace, legislators and other policy-makers should circumspect about the potential implications of actions that increase the magnitude of budget deficits. This is because higher budget deficits are very likely to elevate longer-term ex ante real interest rates affecting household purchases of durable goods, such as housing and business investment in new plant and equipment and technology and hence are likely to adversely influence long-term macro-economic growth through crowding-out effects. Un’analisi empirica degli effetti del deficit USA sui tassi di interesse reali ex-ante sui bond del Tesoro a 20 e a 30 anni Questo lavoro analizza l’impatto del deficit di bilancio federale sui tassi di interesse reale ex-ante sui bond del tesoro a 20 e a 30 anni. Dopo aver preso in considerazione il tasso di cambio ed altre variabili di controllo è emerso che stime quadratiche minime autoregressive a due livelli per l’era post-Bretton Woods rivelano che il rendimento reale ex-ante su entrambi i tipi di bond sono una funzione crescente del deficit di bilancio federale. Di conseguenza, poiché l’emissione di bond del tesoro statunitense a lungo termine è in diretta competizione con l’emissione di bond domestici (come i mutui immobiliari) o di corporate bond del mercato finanziario, il legislatore e il governo dovrebbero riflettere sulle potenziali implicazioni delle politiche che fanno aumentare il deficit di bilancio. Questo perché un deficit maggiore può verosimilmente far crescere il tasso di interesse reale ex ante su un periodo più lungo, influenzando così la domanda interna di beni durevoli come gli immobili e gli investimenti in nuovi impianti e tecnologie e di conseguenza influenzare negativamente la crescita macro-economica di lungo periodo tramite effetti spiazzamento.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula, Richard J. & Foley, Maggie, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis for the U.S. of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields on Thirty-Year and Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 231-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0847
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/upload/rivista_articoli/allegati/271_cebulafoleyricfinalx.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. James B. Bullard, 2017. "An Illustrative Calculation of r† with Policy Implications : a presentation at Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Central Bank Forecasting Conference, St. Louis, Mo. November 9, 2017," Speech 293, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. William Gissy, 1999. "Net treasury borrowing and interest-rate changes," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(1), pages 23-29, March.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Does more government deficit raise the interest rate? Application of extended loanable funds model to Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(2), pages 349-361.
    7. Barth, James R & Iden, George & Russek, Frank S, 1986. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1158-1167, December.
    8. Cebula, Richard J. & Saltz, Ira S., 1998. "Ex Ante Real Long-Term Interest Rates and U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: Preliminary Error-Correction Evidence, 1971-1991," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(2), pages 163-169.
    9. Cebula, Richard J. & Koch, James V., 1994. "Federal budget deficits, interest rates, and international capital flows: A further note," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 117-120.
    10. Bradley Ewing & Mark Yanochik, 1999. "Budget deficits and the term structure of interest rates in Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 199-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    2. Richard J. Cebula, 2018. "Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 828-835, October.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    4. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Richard J Cebula, 2004. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on U.S. Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-18, March.
    8. Cebula, Richard J., 2014. "Preliminary Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Notes after Allowing for Adoption of Monetary Policies Involving "Quantitative E," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 181-200.
    9. Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    10. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Have U.S. Budget Deficits Raised the Real Interest Rate Yield on Tax-Free Municipal Bonds?," MPRA Paper 55545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    12. Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva & Phillips, Joseph M., 1996. "The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 485-494.
    13. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
    15. R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
    16. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard & Toma, Michael, 2005. "Impact of the Primary Budget Deficit on the Nominal Long Term Interest Rate Yield on Tax Free Municipal Bonds," MPRA Paper 61411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cebula, Richard J., 2018. "An Empirical Note on Income Tax Evasion Behavior and the Real Interest Rate Yield on Municipal Bonds," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), January.
    18. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    19. Richard Cebula, 1997. "The impact of net international capital inflows on nominal long-term interest rates in France," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 179-190, June.
    20. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficits; Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields; Thirty-Year Treasury Bonds; Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds; Monetary Policy; Crowding Out;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0847. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.