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Determinants of Western Balkan Emigration Flows: An Empirical Analysis - Determinanti dei flussi emigratori dei Balcani occ identali: un’analisi empirica

Author

Listed:
  • MALAJ, Visar

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tirana)

  • DE RUBERTIS, Stefano

    (Department of Economics Sciences, Faculty of Economics, University of Salento)

Abstract
The decision to migrate is a function of push and p ull factors. Push factors include social and economic problems in the origin country, such as hu man rights violation, poverty, war, natural catastrophes etc. On the other hand, migrants are a ttracted by pull factors in the destination countries, such as high income per capita , common language, security etc. This study is focu sed on the emigration phenomenon in Western Balkans and on the corresponding determinants. We estimate a particular gravity equation, including t wo original independent variables, related with two typical concerns for the Western Balkans: corruption and unemployment. According to the diagnostic tests, the estimated model fits well the data. Governments of Western Balkan countries should orient their policies toward the m itigation of social and economic inequality, the elimination of corruption and of the culture of impunity, and the creation of new jobs. This will lead to a sustainable economic growth and to t he reduction of the number of reasons to leave the country. Authorities should implement drastic r eforms and concrete measures, based on high quality studies and on successful models of fo rmer communist countries, in order to come out of the long and dark tunnel of transition. - La decisione di migrare è una funzione di fattori d i spinta e di attrazione. I fattori di spinta comprendono problemi sociali ed economici legati co n il paese d’origine come la violazione dei diritti umani, la povertà, le guerre, le catastrofi naturali, ecc. D’altra parte, i migranti sono attratti da diversi fattori legati ai paesi di dest inazione come un alto reddito pro capite, la lingua in comune, il livello di sicurezza, ecc. Questo stu dio si concentra sul fenomeno dell'emigrazione nei Balcani occidentali e sui corrispondenti determ inanti. L’analisi empirica include la stima di una particolare equazione di gravità, che contiene due variabili indipendenti originali, legate a due problemi tipici dei Balcani occidentali: la cor ruzione e la disoccupazione. Secondo i test diagnostici, il modello stimato si adatta bene ai d ati. I governi dei paesi dei Balcani occidentali dovrebbero orientare le proprie politiche verso l’a ttenuazione della disuguaglianza sociale ed economica, l'eliminazione della corruzione e della cultura dell'impunità, e la creazione dei nuovi posti di lavoro. Questo porterà ad una crescita eco nomica sostenibile e alla riduzione del numero di ragioni per lasciare il paese. Le autorità dovre bbero attuare riforme drastiche e misure concrete, basandosi su studi scientifici di alta qu alità e su modelli di successo nei paesi ex comunisti, al fine di uscire dal lungo e buio tunne l della transizione.

Suggested Citation

  • MALAJ, Visar & DE RUBERTIS, Stefano, 2016. "Determinants of Western Balkan Emigration Flows: An Empirical Analysis - Determinanti dei flussi emigratori dei Balcani occ identali: un’analisi empirica," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(3), pages 233-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Western Balkans; Gravity Model of Migrati on; Migration Determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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