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Pôles de convergence, gains dynamiques de l’intégration économique et monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest : une approche en termes de clusters

Author

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  • Semedo, Gervasio

    (GERCIE, Université François Rabelais de Tours)

  • Gauthier, Laurent

    (GERCIE, Université François Rabelais de Tours)

  • Bensafta, Kamel Malik

    (Université de Chlef, Algérie)

Abstract
The European experience with the creation of the single Market and the Maastricht Treaty has shown that political pragmatism and the adoption of transparent rules, especially in budget decisions, are means to reduce the structural gap between countries. However, the enlargement to new member countries, the relaxation of fiscal discipline, the asymmetry of countries to shocks, market pressure, the differentiated fiscal policies of member countries in Europe, demonstrated with the debt crisis of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, that without clear direction in economic policy coordination, the adoption of a single currency can lead to limitations of any process of economic and monetary integration. Currency areas live cycles of success, stress and exposure to risk of bursting, if appropriate policy measures are not taken to anticipate the consequences of free riders’ behaviour. Federalism is a desirable outcome to avoid this poor outcome.Our approach based on similar rules of the Maastricht Treaty, the theory of optimum currency areas combined with the clusters analysis, permit to have a global understanding of the structural heterogeneity in ECOWAS. Using Hierarchical Ascendant Classification (HAC) methods, we identify homogeneous subgroups among countries wishing to form a monetary union or clubs of convergence. In view of monetary integration, these clusters can first agree on payment arrangements and compensation to improve their experience to a common currency. This work examines the merits of the economic and monetary regrouping and identifies two groups : one relatively homogeneous – West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Cape Verde, Ghana–and the other in the process of consolidation at a more long-term. In optics to establish a single currency, recommendations of economic policies for each identified clusters are proposed. Résumé : L’expérience européenne avec la création du marché unique et jusqu’à l’avènement du traité de Maastricht a montré que le pragmatisme politique et l’adoption de règles transparentes, constituent des moyens de réduire les fractures structurelles entre pays. Toutefois, l’élargissement à de nouveaux pays membres, le relâchement de la discipline budgétaire, l’asymétrie des pays aux chocs, la pression des marchés, les politiques budgétaires différenciées des pays membres en Europe, ont montré avec la crise de la dette du Portugal, de l’Irlande, de la Grèce et de l’Espagne, que sans direction claire dans la coordination des politiques économiques, l’adoption d’une monnaie unique peut aboutir à des limites de tout processus d’intégration économique et monétaire. Les zones monétaires connaissent ainsi des cycles de réussite, de contrainte et d’exposition à des risques d’éclatement, si des mesures politiques adaptées ne sont pas prises pour anticiper les conséquences des politiques dites de cavalier seul; le fédéralisme est une issue souhaitable pour éviter cette mauvaise issue. Sur la base des règles proches du traité de Maastricht et de la théorie des zones monétaires optimales combinées dans une approche en termes de clusters, nous construisons une grille de lecture pour analyser l’hétérogénéité structurelle des pays de la Communauté économique des États d’Afrique de l’Ouest. En utilisant la méthode de la classification ascendante hiérarchique (CAH), nous identifions des sous-groupes homogènes entre pays ou clusters désirant former une union monétaire ou des pôles de convergences. Dans la perspective de l’intégration monétaire, ces pôles peuvent tout d’abord s’entendre sur des accords de paiement et de compensation puis étendre l’expérience à une monnaie commune jusqu’à l’unification monétaire. Ce travail examine tout d’abord le bien-fondé du regroupement économique et monétaire et identifie deux groupes : l’un relativement homogène – Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA), Cap-Vert, Ghana – et l’autre en voie de consolidation à plus long terme. Dans l’optique d’établir une monnaie unique, des recommandations de politiques économiques pour chacun des clusters identifiés sont proposées.

Suggested Citation

  • Semedo, Gervasio & Gauthier, Laurent & Bensafta, Kamel Malik, 2012. "Pôles de convergence, gains dynamiques de l’intégration économique et monétaire en Afrique de l’Ouest : une approche en termes de clusters," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 37-85, mars.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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