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The Use of Finite Mixtures of Probability Distributions for Modelling the Distribution of the Duration of Unemployment in the Czech Republic
[Použití konečných směsí pravděpodobnostních rozdělení pro modelování rozdělení doby nezaměstnanosti v České republice]

Author

Listed:
  • Ivana Malá
Abstract
Unemployment belongs to the most serious economic and social problems of developed countries. Usually, the rate of unemployment is analysed. Another problem is the duration of unemployment and especially long-term unemployment. The unemployment duration in the Czech Republic in 2010 is analysed in the paper. The model uses data from the Labour Force Sample Survey, which is performed quarterly by the Czech Statistical Office. The probability distribution of unemployment duration is modelled with the use of finite mixtures of lognormal distributions with the observable components of membership, gender and education. The observations are right and interval-censored, exact values of the unemployment duration are not included in the data. Both parametric and non-parametric Kaplan-Meier methods are used to estimate the survival function. The estimated survival functions are compared graphically and medians are evaluated for each component. A positive effect of education on the duration of unemployment is found. Also, a greater median unemployment duration is found for women than for men. All the computations are made in the R software.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivana Malá, 2013. "The Use of Finite Mixtures of Probability Distributions for Modelling the Distribution of the Duration of Unemployment in the Czech Republic [Použití konečných směsí pravděpodobnostních rozdělení p," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(5), pages 47-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2013:y:2013:i:5:id:415:p:47-63
    DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:pri:cepsud:215krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2011. "Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," Working Papers 1295, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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    4. McDonald, James B & Butler, Richard J, 1987. "Some Generalized Mixture Distributions with an Application to Unemployment Duration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 232-240, May.
    5. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2011. "Job Search, Emotional Well-Being and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
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    7. Ham, John C & Svejnar, Jan & Terrell, Katherine, 1998. "Unemployment and the Social Safety Net during Transitions to a Market Economy: Evidence from the Czech and Slovak Republics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1117-1142, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment duration; censored data; mixture of probability distributions; survival analysis; Kaplan-Meier estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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