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An updated Model of Financial Fragility based on General Equilibrium Analysis
[Aktualizace modelu finanční křehkosti založeného na analýze všeobecné rovnováhy]

Author

Listed:
  • Ondřej Machek
  • Luboš Smrčka
Abstract
Financial fragility and instability of banking sectors has received increased academic attention due to recent financial crises around the world. The objective of the article is to extend and adapt a previously created financial fragility model of the Czech financial sector in order to reflect its specific conditions. It introduces the concept of minimum required reserves and uses consistent sources of data collected from annual reports of Czech banks in 2013. Besides the prediction of default of households, the model also allows a prediction of key macroeconomic variables such as the inflation and unemployment rates. However, some of the issues of this class of models - in particular, the impossibility to measure some of its exogenous parameters - remain unresolved and present a challenge for the future development of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Machek & Luboš Smrčka, 2015. "An updated Model of Financial Fragility based on General Equilibrium Analysis [Aktualizace modelu finanční křehkosti založeného na analýze všeobecné rovnováhy]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(4), pages 23-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2015:y:2015:i:4:id:479:p:23-42
    DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    5. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 4, pages 61-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    9. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial fragility; banking sector; general equilibrium; Czech Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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