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Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo nella comprensione dell'inflazione? (Unemployment gap, hysteresis and long-term unemployment: which role in explaining inflation?)

Author

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  • Davide Romaniello

    (Sapienza Universita' di Roma)

Abstract
L'appiattimento della curva di Phillips, in presenza di alti e persistenti tassi di disoccupazione, e' una delle possibili manifestazioni dell'isteresi. L'interpretazione piu' diffusa attribuisce l'isteresi all'aumento dei disoccupati di lunga durata i quali, in quanto emarginati dal mercato del lavoro, ostacolerebbero l'azione depressiva della disoccupazione totale sui salari. Non considerare 'il rischio' di isteresi, porterebbe a sottostimare il NAIRU e ad attendersi una disinflazione maggiore di quella effettivamente osservata. Per quanto rappresenti un tentativo di estendere al lungo periodo il ruolo della domanda aggregata, la teoria dell'isteresi resta ancorata ai principi neoclassici e necessita di addurre eccezioni particolari per spiegare i fenomeni della persistenza della disoccupazione e dell'assenza di (dis)inflazione. Al contrario, un approccio alternativo che coniughi il principio della domanda effettiva con una spiegazione conflittuale della distribuzione puo' fornire una spiegazione solida della presenza di alti tassi di disoccupazione e delle dinamiche dei prezzi. The flattening of the Phillips curve, associated with high and persistent unemployment rates, is one of the possible manifestations of hysteresis. The most widespread interpretation attributes hysteresis to the increase in long-term unemployed who, being detached from the labour market, would hinder the downward pressure of total unemployment on wages. Not considering the 'risk' of hysteresis would lead to underestimating the NAIRU and expecting a greater disinflation than that observed. Although it represents an attempt to extend the role of aggregate demand to the long term, the hysteresis theory remains anchored to neoclassical mechanisms and needs to adduce exceptions to explain the phenomena of the persistence of unemployment and the absence of (dis) inflation. Conversely, an alternative approach that combines the effective demand principle with a conflicting explanation of income distribution can provide a solid explanation for both high unemployment and price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Romaniello, 2022. "Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo nella comprensione dell'inflazione? (Unemployment gap, hysteresis and long-term unemployment: which role in explaining inflatio," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 267-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2022:34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Phillips curve; inflation; long-term unemployment; distributive conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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