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Ripensare le politiche macroeconomiche: evoluzione o rivoluzione? (Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession)

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Lawrence H. Summers

    (Harvard University)

Abstract
L'ovvia lezione della Grande crisi finanziaria è che il sistema finanziario conta e che altre crisi finanziarie probabilmente si verificheranno di nuovo. La seconda lezione, più generale, è che spesso l'economia non è in grado di auto-stabilizzarsi. Queste due lezioni, in un contesto in cui i tassi d'interesse neutrali dovrebbero rimanere bassi, hanno chiare implicazioni per la progettazione delle politiche di stabilizzazione. Come minimo, esse suggeriscono che le politiche potrebbero dover diventare più aggressive, sia ex ante che ex post, con un ribilanciamento di ruoli tra politiche monetarie, fiscali e finanziarie. In particolare, bassi tassi neutrali riducono i margini d'azione della politica monetaria, ma aumentano la possibilità di utilizzo della politica fiscale. Pensiamo a tale ribilanciamento come una evoluzione. Se tuttavia, i tassi neutrali diventeranno ancor più bassi o la regolamentazione finanziaria risulterà insufficiente per prevenire le crisi, potranno rendersi necessarie misure ancor più drastiche, inclusi più ampi disavanzi di bilancio, revisioni degli obiettivi di politica monetaria o restrizioni più severe sul sistema finanziario. Pensiamo a tutto questo come una rivoluzione. Il tempo ci dirà . The obvious lesson from the Great Financial Crisis is that the financial system matters and financial crises will probably happen again. The second, more general, lesson is that the economy is often not self-stabilizing. These two lessons, together with an environment where neutral interest rates are likely to remain low, have clear implications for the design of stabilization policies. At a minimum, they suggest that policies may need to become more aggressive, both ex-ante and ex-post, with a rebalancing of the roles of monetary, fiscal and financial policies. In particular, while low ?neutral? rates decrease the scope for using monetary policy, they increase the scope for using fiscal policy. Think of such rebalancing as evolution. If however, ?neutral? rates become even lower, or financial regulation turns out to be insufficient to prevent crises, more dramatic measures, including larger fiscal deficits, revised monetary policy targets, or sharper restrictions on the financial system, may be needed. Think of this as revolution. Time will tell.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Ripensare le politiche macroeconomiche: evoluzione o rivoluzione? (Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 72(287), pages 171-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2019:32
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary; fiscal and financial policies; macroeconomic stabilization; evolution or revolution of economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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